RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

US: Turbulence ahead

A second wave of Covid-19, contested elections, civil unrest, rising tensions with China and insufficient fiscal stimulus provide a toxic cocktail that are likely to pose a threat to the recovery and cause considerable market turbulence in Q4.

Special

Brexit Outlook: Down to the wire

The negotiations on a EU-UK trade deal are reaching a climax. Even as the scope of the aspired agreement remains limited, there is a non-negligible chance that the talks still collapse. However, the economic effects are overshadowed by the pandemic.

Economic Report

Should India Print Money To Fight Covid-19?

Against the backdrop of a crippled economy and rising debt metrics, policymakers around the globe are adopting or considering unconventional monetary policy to solve the current state of emergency. For some countries, such as India, this would be a bad idea. We show that a major MMT fiscal package could push inflation up to 12% and the currency down by 25%.

Economic Report

United States: Civil unrest

The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.

Special

Money printing: First, do no harm

Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.

Economic Report

India: Twin crises bode ill for the economic outlook

Besides the border dispute with China, India continues to struggle to keep a lid on COVID-19. The twin crises has an adverse impact on India’s attractiveness as an investment destination, which might explain why the Indian rupee (INR) has barely been able to benefit from the global financial markets rally.

Special

EU recovery fund: What will be the impact?

The European Commission presented a recovery fund for the EU. Although there a quite some hurdles to be taken, a compromise does not look out of reach. The pooling of liabilities is further completes the European capital market.

Special

India: Economic growth set to plunge as uncertainty rises

We have revised our economic projections for India downwards and expect the economy to contract by 2.9% in fiscal 2020/21. The economic stimulus package of 20 lakh crore is expected to prop up growth this fiscal year by 1.8ppts, but more unconventional policy measures (such as debt monetization) seem necessary.

Economic Report

Which jobs are vulnerable in the six-foot economy?

The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.