Economic Comment
Moody’s decision to downgrade the UK’s government bond rating should not come as a surprise to investors. That said, the lower rating is a huge blow for Mr. Osborne since his austerity plan was partly based on maintaining the AAA-rating of the UK.
Special
The current debate amongst economists regarding the timing of fiscal consolidation is not yet resolved. In this Special we present evidence that fiscal policy has a larger short-term negative impact on growth than the government currently expects.
Economic Report
There is an on-going debate in the UK regarding the merits of nominal GDP targeting. Of course, ‘out-of-the box’ thinking is welcome but the risk of switching to a new policy framework is high because it can destabilise inflation expectations.
Economic Comment
The eurozone GDP contracted by 0.6% q-o-q in the final quarter of 2012. Sentiment indicators suggest the economy will fare better in 13Q1, but we do not expect growth to pick up strongly in 2013 amid severe economic headwinds.
Economic Comment
The G7 statement released today was aimed at addressing concerns over a fresh round of global currency wars. It is vital that the world leaders denounce beggar-thy-neighbour policies at the upcoming G20 meeting in Moscow as well.
Economic Report
The competitiveness of the Turkish economy is obstructed by a high minimum wage, stringent labor laws and a flawed education system. Improvements are needed to allow Turkey to compete abroad and fully benefit from a young and growing labour market.
Economic Report
Despite Turkey's economic success over the past decade, its large external imbalance remains a cause for concern. This report considers the risks, as well as the reforms needed to reduce this imbalance and move to a more sustainable growth path.
