RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Emerging markets vulnerability heatmap

The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.

Special

Emerging Markets Vulnerability Heatmap

We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.

Economic Comment

Argentinians vote: Macri, carry on!

On 22 October, Argentina held legislative mid-term elections and the ruling coalition Cambiemos claimed the victory - an important vote of confidence regarding its reform path.

Economic Report

Latin America: The only way is up

Having reached rock bottom in 2016, Latin American economies are performing better in 2017. Most countries have fared well the adverse period, though fiscal positions have weakened across the board.

Special

Argentina: open for business

A new government has embarked on a major and much-needed shift in economic policies. The economic recovery is in sight and business opportunities arise in sectors with high catch up potential.

Special

Latin America: FX, risk, carry and central banks

Latin American currencies remain at the mercy of external factors and in particular global liquidity and central bank policy. And that is unlikely to change in the coming year.

Economic Report

Latin America: cycling on or muddling through?

Economic activity in Latin America is expected to pick up in 2017, though the improvement is modest. Few countries enjoy the room to use monetary or fiscal stimulus to give their economies a hand.

Economic Report

Latin America: turning the populist page

The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.

Country Report

Argentina: normalizing the economy, a tough balancing act

The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.

Country Report

Argentina: economic transition full speed ahead

Following opposition victory in the November 2015 Argentinian elections, Argentina changes course on economic policy. The shift is good for the business environment, but not without implementation risks.