RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Russia: Slowdown continues, stimulus expected

The most recent data shows that economic growth in Russia continues to slow down. There have been talks of a fiscal stimulus package, which is feasible given Russia’s healthy public finances. However, it is not without risks in the long term.

Economic Update

India: Weak recovery after disappointing year

In 2012-13, growth in India fell to the lowest rate in a decade. We expect a modest recovery going forward. A favorable monsoon is likely to boost growth somewhat, but the current account deficit constrains the room to apply (further) stimulus.

Economic Report

Rente uit balans (Dutch)

De rente op spaargeld is momenteel op het laagste niveau in tien jaar tijd. Tegelijkertijd zijn de spaarrentes in Nederland in vergelijking met  andere eurolanden juist hoog en is spaargeld als financieringsbron voor banken relatief duur.

Economic Quarterly Report

The Netherlands: Economy caught in austerity trap

continued focus on Brussels’ 3% of GDP deficit ceiling will again prevent the Dutch economy from growing in 2014. It would be better if the cabinet accelerated structural reforms instead of carrying out additional spending cuts.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht juni 2013 (Dutch)

Wereldwijd hebben beleidsmakers de monetaire sluizen de afgelopen maanden verder opengedraaid. Ook qua begrotingsbeleid lijkt er een iets andere wind te gaan waaien.

Special

Conditional Euro T-Bills as a transitional regime

Since early 2010, tensions within the Eurozone have risen sharply. What started with a Greek confession that both projections for and past realizations of government debt and deficit statistics were blatantly off the mark, developed into a Euro crisis of systemic proportions.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The political stalemate in Egypt pushes the downtrodden economy further into the abyss. However, Egypt is expected to muddle through until the elections, but the downside risks are high.

Country Report

Country Report Nicaragua

Nicaragua has a weak political and economic structure, as well as a low standard of living. Economic growth has been quite strong in recent years. Nicaragua’s heavy reliance on support Venezuela is a big vulnerability.

Country Report

Country Report Suriname

The Surinam economy has grown relatively rapidly recently. The country has a current account surplus and government debt is low at 20% of GDP. Shortcomings are weak external relations, weak institutions and a narrow economic base.

Column

Doe het op z'n Amerikaans (Dutch)

Het Europese economische herstel wil maar niet overtuigend van de grond. Beleidsmakers zitten met de handen in het haar. Het bedrijfsleven maakt zich grote zorgen over zowel de schrale economische vooruitzichten als de beperkte toegang tot krediet.

Country Report

Country Report Botswana

Botswana’s economy remains largely dependent on diamond mining. As a result of weak external demand for diamonds, economic growth has slowed down last year. The fiscal position improved substantially and the budget is now recording a small surplus.

Country Report

Country Report Tunisia

Political polarization and an upsurge in radicalization make stability maintenance a challenge for Tunisia, while its realization is essential for a recovery of the economy and for restoring the increasing external and fiscal imbalances.

Country Report

Country Report Angola

Angola is an oil-rich country and Africa’s second largest oil exporter. Angola’s economic growth is highly dependent on oil price developments and a declining international oil price will therefore remain a cause of concern.

Country Report

Country Report Colombia

Peace talks between the FARC and the government are likely to be protracted, but could boost the reputation of Colombia and the energy sector. Meanwhile, an important tax reform could reduce the high income inequality and labour informality.