RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

Worse before it gets better

We have never actually exited the financial crisis. The problem simply shifted from consumers' assets to the banks balance sheets and ultimately landed on governments’ laps, which in Europe are currently attempting to transfer it to a supranational level.

Economic Report

The risk of a hard landing in China

This article is part of a series of Special Reports that discuss the downside risks to the global economic outlook. In this study we take a closer look at the risk of a hard landing in China.

Country Report

Taiwan (Country update)

Although Taiwan witnessed an economic downturn during 2008/2009, the country has managed to recover well, recording 10.9% growth in GDP in 2010.

Country Report

China (Country report)

In China, real GDP growth is slowing gradually to 8.5% in 2012 under the baseline, soft landing scenario. However, a number of downside risks are present. Inflation is easing and in 2012 and 2013, China’s top leadership will be replaced.

Country Report

Country Update Maldives

The economy of Maldives is forecast to grow around 5-6% in 2011/12, helped by recovering tourism arrivals. However, the Maldives struggles with massive deficits on the fiscal and current account balance.

Special

Innovation in China and India

The growth performance of India and China has been astonishing. This paper considers their innovative performance, now and in the future. It looks at the various factors driving innovation, as well as the obstacles that China and India need to overcome.

Country Report

India (Country update)

India is showing very robust economic growth, even though it is easing this year compared to last year. The economy is estimated to expand by 7.9% in 2011.

Country Report

Mongolia (Country report)

Mongolia’s economy is recovering on the back of strong international demand for its commodity exports. Growth recovered to 6.1% in 2010 and will remain strong in the coming years. Structurally, Mongolia’s economy is weak.

Country Report

Thailand (Country report)

The unstable political and social situation remains the largest country risk for Thailand. While the situation has stabilized compared to the large-scale violent riots last year, uncertainty remains until the next general elections.

Country Report

The Philippines (Country report)

The Philippine economy is estimated to grow by 5-6% in 2011. The triple disaster in Japan could adversely affect this estimate, as the country has deep trade and investment links with the Philippines.

Country Report

Australia (Country report)

The Australian economy has weathered the global financial and economic crisis relatively well and the deterioration in the public budget balance is easily accommodated by the low sovereign debt level.

Country Report

India (Country report)

India is showing very robust economic growth, after a mild slowdown during the global financial crisis. The economy is estimated to have expanded by 9.1% yoy in 2010 and grow by 9.0% yoy in 2011. The largest country risks are found in the political and social situation.

Country Report

China (Country update)

China’s economy continues to perform strongly in spite of numerous rounds of monetary tightening, with year-on-year (yoy) real GDP growth remaining steady at 9.8% and 9.7% in the last two quarters. Inflation remains stubbornly high at around 5% yoy in each of the past three months.