RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Italy: Public debt affordability issues loom

Italy’s new government has the thankless task to balance fiscal support amid the energy crisis and keeping public finances in check. Unless energy prices and bond yields come down significantly, debt affordability challenges could materialise soon.

Economic Report

United States: Double recession

After the technical recession in the first half of this year, the Fed’s Volcker-esque hiking cycle and the inverted yield curve point to an official recession next year. The current inversion of the yield curve indicates that the probability of the second recession is 70%.

Special

The Third Round of French Elections

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.

Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

Economic Comment

France: A Second Term for Macron

Macron has won a second term as president of France. His first term was quite successful from an economic point of view and he is likely to push on with his reform agenda. The degree to which he is able to do so, is dependent on the outcome of the legislative elections in June.