RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Will COP15 Be the ‘Paris-moment’ for Nature?

Human well-being, our economies, and the ability to reach our climate goals are heavily dependent on biodiversity. Yet, economic activities continue to cause massive damage to nature. The UN Convention on Biological Diversity’s 15th conference, COP15, presents a timely opportunity to set targets to reverse the global loss of biodiversity and ecosystems as part of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.

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Italy: Public debt affordability issues loom

Italy’s new government has the thankless task to balance fiscal support amid the energy crisis and keeping public finances in check. Unless energy prices and bond yields come down significantly, debt affordability challenges could materialise soon.

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The EU's road to net-zero mobility: Highway or traffic jam?

Within the EU Green Deal the transport sector needs to cut 90% of its emissions by 2050. This article outlines the policies that the EU is deploying to this end. The policies cover a very broad range, raising the question of whether the many stakeholders will be able to implement all the required changes.

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What a right-wing coalition would bring Italy

Italian elections on September 25 are set to be won by the conservative right coalition. Importantly, Italy will continue to support sanctions against Russia and eurozone membership, but frictions with the EU and the risk of fiscal slippage will increase.

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US: Technical Recession

The advance estimate for Q2 GDP growth shows that the US is in a ‘technical recession’, which means two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Meanwhile, the strong labor market is telling a different story. Therefore, it is not likely that the current economic circumstances will lead the NBER to call an official recession in H1.

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UK: Stagflation nation

The economy of the United Kingdom experiences a ‘European’ demand shock but also has ‘American’ labour shortages. Weak growth and high inflation is the result. Meanwhile, there is a constant threat of a trade war with the European Union.

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United States: The inevitable recession

A recession seems inevitable for the US: even if the economy is able to absorb the exogenous shocks to the supply side, the response of the central bank to the wage-price spiral will cause a recession from within.