RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The EU's road to net-zero mobility: Highway or traffic jam?

Within the EU Green Deal the transport sector needs to cut 90% of its emissions by 2050. This article outlines the policies that the EU is deploying to this end. The policies cover a very broad range, raising the question of whether the many stakeholders will be able to implement all the required changes.

Special

What a right-wing coalition would bring Italy

Italian elections on September 25 are set to be won by the conservative right coalition. Importantly, Italy will continue to support sanctions against Russia and eurozone membership, but frictions with the EU and the risk of fiscal slippage will increase.

Special

US: Technical Recession

The advance estimate for Q2 GDP growth shows that the US is in a ‘technical recession’, which means two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Meanwhile, the strong labor market is telling a different story. Therefore, it is not likely that the current economic circumstances will lead the NBER to call an official recession in H1.

Special

UK: Stagflation nation

The economy of the United Kingdom experiences a ‘European’ demand shock but also has ‘American’ labour shortages. Weak growth and high inflation is the result. Meanwhile, there is a constant threat of a trade war with the European Union.

Special

United States: The inevitable recession

A recession seems inevitable for the US: even if the economy is able to absorb the exogenous shocks to the supply side, the response of the central bank to the wage-price spiral will cause a recession from within.

Special

Should the ECB consider issuing its own securities?

The issuance of securities by a central bank is a very market friendly instrument of open market operations, which already is used by many central banks all over the world. Now that the ECB faces the challenge of reducing bank liquidity with as little as possible disturbance of financial markets, it might also consider to issue ECB-securities. This would bring two advantages.

Special

The Third Round of French Elections

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.