RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Scotland: A proxy vote for independence?

The Scottish regional election is potentially shaping up to have a big impact on the future of the UK. Scottish independence has returned to the top of the agenda and the SNP will argue to have a fresh mandate. The economic argument for Scottish independence is weak, but the Conservatives aren’t in the position to credibly make this case.

Special

United States: American Rescue Plan

President Biden has delivered a large covid relief package within the first 100 days of his administration that will support Americans at least through early September. By not fully exploring the bipartisan route, Biden has limited the type of policies that he can get through Congress going forward.

Special

China’s economic recovery: A tale of two speeds

China’s economy is recovering. However, the recovery is unequal. In addition, Covid-19 has increased income inequalities and regional differences. China’s situation might give a glimpse into imbalances in the recovery of other countries as well.

Special

US elections: Economy or identity?

While economists have framed the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election in terms of economic inequality, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and stagnating income, the empirical evidence rejects these claims and suggests that identity played a more important role than the economy.

Special

How COVID-19 will impact ASEAN: Deep recessions and a weak recovery

We think most ASEAN economies will enter a deep recession this year. The recovery next year will be modest, held back by weak external demand, social distancing and weak consumer sentiment. Also, ASEAN currencies will face another bout of depreciations.

Special

Scenario’s zijn onmisbaar bij voorspellen in crisistijd (Dutch)

Economische voorspellingen in crisistijd zijn nog onzekerder dan normaal. Daarom werken we met scenario-analyses. Voor de huidige crisis hebben wij aannames gemaakt over de lengte en omvang van de lockdown-maatregelen, het monetaire en begrotingsbeleid, de omvang van handelsbelemmeringen en structurele productiviteitseffecten.