RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The EU's road to net-zero mobility: Highway or traffic jam?

Within the EU Green Deal the transport sector needs to cut 90% of its emissions by 2050. This article outlines the policies that the EU is deploying to this end. The policies cover a very broad range, raising the question of whether the many stakeholders will be able to implement all the required changes.

Special

What a right-wing coalition would bring Italy

Italian elections on September 25 are set to be won by the conservative right coalition. Importantly, Italy will continue to support sanctions against Russia and eurozone membership, but frictions with the EU and the risk of fiscal slippage will increase.

Economic Report

The Basics of Electricity Price Formation

Europe is facing very high prices for both natural gas and electricity. In many European countries, the prices of both commodities are related, most of the times. However, electricity prices are not pegged to natural gas prices. This article explains how electricity prices are established.

Special

US: Technical Recession

The advance estimate for Q2 GDP growth shows that the US is in a ‘technical recession’, which means two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Meanwhile, the strong labor market is telling a different story. Therefore, it is not likely that the current economic circumstances will lead the NBER to call an official recession in H1.

Economic Update

Italy: Elections amid a cost of living crisis

In the second quarter, Italy’s economy performed better than expected and GDP is again larger than pre-pandemic. Still, a recession looks inevitable going forward, due to the cost of living crisis. After elections, policy could move significantly right.

Economic Update

Eurozone GDP surprise masks weakening trend

The Eurozone economy beat expectations in the second quarter, as it grew by 0.7%. We still expect the eurozone economy to enter a shallow recession in the winter, although the risks of a severe contraction due to an energy crisis have increased.

Special

UK: Stagflation nation

The economy of the United Kingdom experiences a ‘European’ demand shock but also has ‘American’ labour shortages. Weak growth and high inflation is the result. Meanwhile, there is a constant threat of a trade war with the European Union.

Special

United States: The inevitable recession

A recession seems inevitable for the US: even if the economy is able to absorb the exogenous shocks to the supply side, the response of the central bank to the wage-price spiral will cause a recession from within.