Special
The advance estimate for Q2 GDP growth shows that the US is in a ‘technical recession’, which means two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Meanwhile, the strong labor market is telling a different story. Therefore, it is not likely that the current economic circumstances will lead the NBER to call an official recession in H1.
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An increasing number of businesses are considering to move their production from China to friendly counties. This could cost up to 28m Chinese jobs. Depending on the product, we expect these jobs to move to either low-wage countries, emerging markets or to developed economies.
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The increasing demand for renewable power is expected to push demand for PPAs upward in most parts of Europe, yet the PPA growth story is not expected to materialize without challenges and changes.
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PPAs are on the rise in Europe, as such contracts are an increasingly popular way of financing the deployment of renewables. However, the growth in this market is not hurdle free. High power market volatility pushes players to rethink their strategies.
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The economy of the United Kingdom experiences a ‘European’ demand shock but also has ‘American’ labour shortages. Weak growth and high inflation is the result. Meanwhile, there is a constant threat of a trade war with the European Union.
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A recession seems inevitable for the US: even if the economy is able to absorb the exogenous shocks to the supply side, the response of the central bank to the wage-price spiral will cause a recession from within.
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EU leaders have agreed to ban all Russian seaborne oil imports. The ban, amid already high inflation, intense supply chain pressure and tightening financial conditions, will push the Eurozone into a recession.
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On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.
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Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.
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The EU is further tightening the thumbscrews on Russia. In this updated scenario analysis we take a closer look at the economic impact of an energy import ban. A decline in Eurozone GDP over the next four quarters seems all but given now.
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It’s hard to underestimate the relevance of stationary energy storage for the energy transition. This note outlines what stationary energy storage is, shows various storage technologies and predicts where the market will boom in coming years.
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The Ukraine war has sparked another supply chain crisis. EU industry will be impacted via higher prices of both energy and non-energy commodities, lengthened delivery times of inputs and possibly shortages. Germany and Italy are relatively vulnerable.
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Yield curve inversions are often seen as warning signals of a recession, but a statistical analysis suggests that these signals should be interpreted with care. We provide the thresholds that would indicate a probability of a recession higher than 50%.
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The current energy crisis has highlighted the geopolitical risks associated with our dependence on Russian gas. The EU aims to become fully independent from Russian energy, but replacing Russian gas fully is easier said than done.
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The EU’s carbon market is going through a perfect storm of disruptions. Despite the current turbulence, we expect a structurally high EU carbon price for the long term. Companies affected by the EU ETS must start drafting their adaptation strategies.
