RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Gasflation

US and European natural gas prices have jumped to multi-year highs; to the extent that comparisons with the 1970’s oil crises are perhaps not as far-fetched as some would think.

Economic Report

The US standoff on the debt limit: an unnecessary political game

In October we could see both a US government shutdown and a government default if the spending and debt bill approved by the House of Representatives on Tuesday does not pass the Senate. This is a game of chicken between Democrats and Republicans that is completely unnecessary.

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Update

Spain: Reopening of the economy boosts the recovery

The reopening of the economy has spurred economic activity in the services sector. In Q2 GDP grew with 2.8%. The recovery is set to continue with again strong albeit slowing growth rates in the coming quarters. GDP will reach its pre-crisis level end- 2022.

Economic Update

Australia: From frontrunner to laggard

The transmission of the delta variant and low vaccination rates in Australia, have turned Australia from a frontrunner into a laggard. We have revised our economic forecast for 2021 downwards, as a result of the economic spillover effects of the current wave of, and projected, infections in Q3 and Q4.

Economic Report

Delta variant forces Australia into new lockdowns

Australia is facing new lockdowns due to the spread of the Delta variant. Nonetheless, we expect the economic impact to be less severe than last year. Inflation reached a high point of 3.8%. However, the central sees this as temporary and the RBA doesn’t expect to hike rates before 2024.

Economic Report

Economy of India recovers from second wave of Covid-19

India’s economy rebounds quickly and economic pain of the second wave will be concentrated in the second quarter. Inflation number were above inflation target of the RBI in May and June but seem to have peaked. We expect the RBI to remain its accommodative stance for some time to come.

Special

Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap

Strong economic recovery by advanced economies is leading to increasing inflation expectations. Tighter monetary policy in advanced economies potentially threatens emerging market economic recovery. Our vulnerability Heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of important economic indicators to signal potential vulnerabilities in 18 economies.

Special

Germany: better times ahead?

The German economy will recover quickly, driven by foreign- and pent-up demand. Its traditional unease with soaring prices will be tested. The September election is going to be crucial: Germany faces some tough decisions.