RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report United Kingdom

UK’s economy has been stagnating since 2010. What the authorities fail to realise is that growth shortfalls are equally credit-negative. The poor economic performance and the resulting downside risks to banks’ asset quality also remain a concern.

Country Report

Country Report United States

The economic recovery is expected to continue this and next year. The brinkmanship in Washington has not resulted in a fiscal crisis yet. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in the Summer, the US government may eventually be forced to default.

Country Report

Country Report Singapore

Singapore’s recovery is expected to gather some steam but we cannot expect growth to be very high in a weak external environment. The outlook is clouded by significant downside risks from the external sector.

Country Report

Country Report Japan

Recent policy initiatives of the new Prime Minster suggest that Japan’s economic activity will be picking up in the near-term. But the medium-term prospects are less rosy. Achieving debt sustainability requires credible fiscal consolidation plans.

Country Report

Country Report Estonia

Estonia’s economic growth will moderate this year. As a result, inflationary pressures will remain subdued. Estonia’s contribution to the ESM implies a significant liability. Furthermore, the country’s external position is fragile.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Economic growth in Russia is falling to a lower longer-term trend growth of 3-4%. While domestic political stability has been restored, underlying tensions remain. Tensions with the EU have recently risen but are unlikely to escalate.

Economic Comment

Eurozone: blijven wachten op herstel (Dutch)

De economische activiteit in de eurozone is in het eerste kwartaal van 2013 wederom gekrompen (-0,2% k-o-k). Sentimentsindicatoren wijzen op een eveneens zwak tweede kwartaal. Voor de rest van het jaar blijven de vooruitzichten mager.

Economic Comment Dutch version

Dutch economy still in recession

At 0.1%, the contraction of Dutch GDP in the first quarter of 2013 was relatively modest, but with output having been supported by elevated gas consumption the underlying economic development was actually very weak.

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Grenzen vervagen (Dutch)

De afgelopen weken ging de discussie in economenland over de grens van overheidsschuld waarna de economische groei zou afnemen. Recent is de wetmatigheid van lage economische groei bij hoge overheidsschuld in twijfel getrokken. Grenzen vervagen.

Country Report

Country Report United Arab Emirates

The economy of the oil-rich United Arab Emirates is estimated to grow between 3-4% in 2013. Although the UAE has hardly been touched by the political turmoil in the Arab world, youth unemployment is rising and is a source of potential unrest.

Country Report

Country Report Czech Republic

Reflecting close business cycle synchronicity with the euro area and fiscal consolidation at home, the Czech economy contracted by 1.2% last year. Yet, thanks to ongoing fiscal prudence, the deterioration of public finances could be contained.

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WatwiljijmetEuropa? (Dutch)

De Partij van de Arbeid lanceerde vorige maand de webpagina www.watwiljijmetEuropa.nl. Een constructief initiatief in het voortdurende publieke debat over de aanpak van de eurocrisis en de toekomst van Europa.