RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

India: GDP data revision - Eat your cake, don’t ‘cook’ it

There is much controversy surrounding India’s GDP back-series for years 2004/05 to 2011/12. The discussion now has been politicized, which is undermining the credibility of Indian statistics. This is worrying, especially for an emerging economy which can easily lose the support of international investors.

Economic Report

Is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) making a policy error?

We believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is making a policy error after the last MPC meeting by keeping its policy rates on hold. There is a risk that the RBI is underestimating the inflationary pressure in the Indian economy and the impact of the ongoing Fed tightening cycle.

Economic Report

Weathering the Indian rupee storm

The Indian rupee is the worst performing currency in Asia, losing 12% this year. We use two approaches (an EM Vulnerability Heatmap and an integrated model) to delve deeper into the fundamentals of the INR and assess whether the current weak levels are justified.

Economic Report Dutch version

New round of US tariffs raises the pressure on China

On 24 September the United States have installed tariffs on another 200 billion USD imports from China. China responded with tariffs on 60 billion USD of imports from the US. We expect the negative economic effects to be more pronounced for China than for the US.

Economic Report

The downsides of India’s oil addiction

The oil market is going through a rocky period. Large net oil importing emerging markets, such as India, are vulnerable, but exactly how vulnerable? In this column we show the economic impact in case of a mild and severe oil price shock.

Economic Report

De onvermoede voortgang van Trump (Dutch)

Ruim één jaar na de inauguratie van Donald Trump zijn de eerste successen geboekt: een ingrijpende belastingwet is getekend en de regeldruk voor het bedrijfsleven is verminderd. Handelsmaatregelen bleven achter bij de campagneretoriek, maar kunnen in 2018 alsnog van de grond komen.

Economic Report

Mexico/Canada: are free-trade agreements with the EU beneficial?

We find evidence that the current bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between Mexico and the EU raised exports by 4%. An improved BTA between the EU and Mexico could mitigate some of the negative fallout of a potential NAFTA collapse, albeit to a small extent.