RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Re-assessing the US-China trade war

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.

Special

The oil market in turmoil: a case of losers and winners

Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.

Special

Uiteenvallen NAFTA biedt kansen voor Nederlandse exporteurs (Dutch)

Over de toekomst van NAFTA bestaat momenteel grote onzekerheid. Beëindiging van het huidige verdrag leidt tot economische verliezen voor de betrokken partijen. Voor Nederlandse exporteurs kan het echter ook kansen opleveren, omdat hun relatieve handelspositie verbetert.

Special

The economic impact of a (partial) NAFTA breakdown

The total economic costs of a NAFTA breakdown up till 2025 would range between 0.9% and 1.0% GDP for the US, 1.3% and 2.0% GDP for Canada, and 2.2% and 2.6% GDP for Mexico, depending on the severity of the breakdown.

Special Dutch version

The permanent damage of Brexit

The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.

Special

Assessing the economic impact of Brexit: Background report

The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.