RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report

Herstel Nederlandse economie zet voorzichtig door (Dutch)

Ondanks een terugval in het eerste kwartaal van dit jaar zal het Nederlandse BBP-volume in 2014 groeien met naar verwachting ½%. Het herstel van de Nederlandse economie heeft plaats tegen de achtergrond van een zwak groeiende mondiale economie.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The policy focus in Indonesia is on macroeconomic stabilisation, while protectionist policies have been implemented in the past months. Growth is expected to slow to 5.4% in 2014. No major new structural reforms are expected from the next government.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

After the May 22 coup, Thailand is under military control. The risk of large and violent protests remains present. The democracy is unlikely to be restored in the short-term. Whilst in control, the military aims to restore economic growth.

Country Report

Country Report Brunei

Brunei’s economy contracted by 1.8% in 2013, but growth will be positive, though muted this year. The government has started to gradually introduce a sharia penal code.

Country Report

Country Report India

India’s parliamentary elections in April-May are the focal point of the news at the moment. Even though these elections will likely put the opposition in power, significant policy changes are not expected.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht in vogelvlucht (Dutch)

De wereldeconomie zal in 2014 en 2015 naar verwachting langzaam herstellen. Over de gehele linie zijn de risico’s iets kleiner dan de afgelopen jaren, maar eventuele schokken kunnen in dit stadium wel grote gevolgen hebben.

Country Report

Country Report Vietnam

Since 2012, Vietnam is slowly building up a track record of economic stability. Meanwhile, the government continues to work on needed reforms, but has not taken away the risks. External liquidity is very weak, but no longer critical.

Country Report

Country Report South Korea

Economic growth has accelerated last year, and is expected to rise to 3.4% this year. In the face of tapering, South Korea is confronted with an uncertain external environment. However, so far the impact has been limited.

Economic Comment

Tapering, a game-changer?

The start of tapering in January 2014 is not expected to significantly change our global economic outlook. Nevertheless, it might have negative consequences for the bond markets of vulnerable countries, both in the emerging world and the eurozone.

Economic Comment

Derde Plenum in China maakt verwachtingen niet waar (Dutch)

Er is tijdens het derde plenum brede politieke steun verkregen voor het doorzetten met de nodige hervormingen. Een einddoel is geformuleerd, maar het is helaas niet duidelijk geworden hoe China dat precies gaat bereiken.

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - China: balancing reforms and growth

After an ambitious start, China’s new leadership seems to have eased back on its reform drive. Maintaining a sufficiently strong growth rate is still the priority. For 2014, this implies only incremental reforms and a growth rate of around 7¼%.

Country Report

Country Report Taiwan

Due to a weak external environment, Taiwan’s economy has been performing weakly, but a slight growth acceleration is expected. Political infighting in the ruling KMT party has weakened the president’s position and will hamper policy implementation.