RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update Dutch version

Dutch third quarter GDP growth disappoints

According to the preliminary estimate from Statistics Netherlands regarding third quarter growth in 2015, Dutch GDP grew by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. This figure was lower than we expected.

Country Report

Russia: bottoming out?

Russia’s economy might be finally bottoming out after recording a 5% yoy contraction in 2Q15, the sharpest in six years. However the growth outlook remains bleak due to structurally lower oil prices, existing sanctions and lack of structural reforms.

Country Report

Kenya: climbing economy, sliding currency

Kenya’s economy continues to grow strongly, but the depreciating currency poses short term risks for inflation and debt service. In the medium term, elections in 2018 could give rise to increased ethnic tensions and result in civil unrest.

Country Report

South Africa: exacerbating structural problems

South Africa’s growth outlook is held back by low investor confidence and structural weaknesses in areas such as infrastructure, labour and competition. Neither of these are likely to be addressed in the current financial and political climate.

Country Report

Zambia: headwinds due to low copper prices

Low copper prices and lower copper production have pulled the trade balance in negative territory and increased the budget deficit. This combined with a sharp depreciation of the kwacha has increased public debt.

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version

Dutch housing market to maintain higher sales levels next year

House prices and sales will increase this year and next, due to the economic recovery, the good affordability and high consumer confidence. We expect this to be stronger than the issue of negative equity and the tightening of lending criteria.