RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report Dutch version

Europe’s (public) debt challenge

Private and public sector debt is high in many European countries. Public debt challenges seem to be the greatest in Southern European countries, Croatia and Hungary; and lowest in the Nordics and Baltics. Some Western European countries face quite substantial public debt sustainability challenges.

Economic Report Dutch version

Macroeconomic developments in Europe

We expect growth in Europe to accelerate gradually, although the economy has far from fully recovered from the Global Financial Crisis. Substantial deterioration in the Greek situation and/or the geopolitical conflicts remain downside risks.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

Political pressure on the central bank ahead of parliamentary elections contributed to a strong depreciation of the Turkish lira. Concerns about a possible executive presidency after elections and more populist economic policies unnerve investors.

Column

Het Spaanse ochtendgloren (Dutch)

Een werkloosheid van 23%, een begrotingstekort boven de 3%-norm van de Europese Commissie en een ingestorte huizenmarkt. Dit beeld van Spanje is in rap tempo aan het kantelen door hervormingen, maar deze hervormingen hebben wel pijn gedaan.

Country Report

Country report Portugal

The Portuguese economy returned to growth in 2014 but medium term prospects remain weak. Meanwhile, with an election this year, the reform effort while this year’s budget is based on overly optimistic assumptions.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

The Spanish economy is expected to maintain its competitiveness while domestic demand strengthens. The low quality of employment created may hurt productivity growth. We expect to see political fragmentation at the national level.

Country Report

Country report Ireland

The strong rebound of the Irish economy supported private sector deleveraging while the housing prices rebounded strongly. With the budget deficit down and political stability enduring, the situation in Ireland is set to improve further.

Country Report

Country report Italy

Italy’s economy shrank again in 2014, and is expected to only recover slowly. Political stability has improved a bit and the government’s reform agenda is promising. Some major reforms have already been achieved, but progress is and will remain slow.