RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Recession virtually certain

It is virtually certain that the Dutch economy slid into recession in the second half of last year - only two years after the last recession in the second quarter of 2009. This sluggish economic performance has many negative consequences.

Economic Comment

The Bank of England unleashes QE2.1

The Bank of England extended QE2, in line with our expectation. This may mark the end of the Bank’s easing cycle unless the economy weakens substantially going forward.

Economic Comment

Maastricht Treaty turned 20, hooray?

The 20th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty went largely unnoticed due to the euro crisis. Now the officials have come up with stricter fiscal rules to avoid a repeat of this crisis. Only time will tell whether the taken steps are sufficient.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

In the second half of 2011 the Belgian economy experienced a mild recession. Also this year growth of domestic demand will be very weak, partly due to the fiscal consolidation measures.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

Many instantly concluded that Germany’s annual GDP growth in 2011 (3%) implies economic contraction in 11Q4. In our view, such straightforward derivations are unwarranted. That said, the likelihood of GDP contraction in 11Q4 increased markedly.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

The Italian economy fell back into recession in11Q3. The pace of decline probably accelerated in the fourth quarter and we expect a further contraction in 12Q1. The announced austerity measures will hold back growth in 2012 as a whole.

Economic Comment

Dutch pension cuts imminent (Macro Comment)

Three of the largest Dutch pension funds have recently announced that pay-out cuts are imminent. The reasons are insufficient recovery of financial markets, low interest rates and increasing life expectancy.