RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report

Has the world turned upside down?

The emerging markets are facing some headwinds. Slower growth in China together with the ‘taper’ talk in the US is weighing on economic activity.

Economic Quarterly Report

Finally some tailwinds

There are signs that UK’s economic activity is gathering momentum. But the recovery is not on a solid footing yet and, therefore, needs to be nurtured. Should ‘forward guidance’ not succeed to stem the tightening of financial condi-tions, more QE will probably be reconsidered as an option, especially because the government will not opt for a slower pace of fiscal austerity.

Economic Quarterly Report

A slightly better outlook

The Dutch economy remained in recession in the second quarter of 2013. We expect export growth to pick up in the coming quarters. However, low domestic spending will hold economic recovery back

Economic Quarterly Report

The Netherlands: Economy caught in austerity trap

continued focus on Brussels’ 3% of GDP deficit ceiling will again prevent the Dutch economy from growing in 2014. It would be better if the cabinet accelerated structural reforms instead of carrying out additional spending cuts.

Economic Quarterly Report

United Kingdom: Has the recovery finally arrived?

There are some signs that the UK recovery is gathering momentum. But the growth outlook remains very much dependent on the external economic envi-ronment. A re-escalation of the euro crisis can throw a spanner in the works. This is the translation of a part from the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly.

Economic Quarterly Report

China: Disappointing growth not necessarily bad

Contrary to earlier expectations, China’s economic growth slowed slightly. This was not necessarily bad news, as the growth rate remained between 7.5%-8%, whereas significantly stronger or weaker growth would currently both be undesirable. This is the translation from the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly -

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht juni 2013 (Dutch)

Wereldwijd hebben beleidsmakers de monetaire sluizen de afgelopen maanden verder opengedraaid. Ook qua begrotingsbeleid lijkt er een iets andere wind te gaan waaien.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht maart 2013 (Dutch)

De wereldeconomie is sinds het begin van dit jaar in rustiger vaarwater gekomen. Volgens sommigen is daarmee 'het licht aan het eind van de tunnel' in zicht gekomen. Anderen zijn daar minder van overtuigd en stellen dat dit licht afkomstig is van een naderende trein.

Economic Quarterly Report

The Netherlands: heading for seven lean years

The Dutch economy has failed to recover from the Great Recession of 2008/2009 over the past several years. It contracted again in 2012 due to relatively low export growth and a drop in domestic spending. We do not expect this outlook to change to any significant degree this year or next.

Economic Quarterly Report

Light in the middle of the tunnel

The world has entered calmer waters since the beginning of this year. As such, some are already claiming that they are ‘seeing the light at the end of the tunnel’. We caution that there may still be some tunnel ahead.

Economic Quarterly Report

United Kingdom: growth stagnant, employment up?

UK’s recovery is still very sluggish while the labour market is going from strength to strength. The economic outlook is unlikely to improve materially unless the pace of fiscal consolidation is slowed.