Special
Brexit: Living apart together
The EU-UK trade agreement marks the start of a complex relationship in which the UK and the EU will have to learn to live together separately. This won’t be without frictions.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
22 Publications
Special
Brexit: Keep Talking
The mandates of Brexit negotiators Barnier and Frost don’t ‘click’, no matter how long they keep talking. As the talks go down the wire, political intervention remains necessary to break the deadlock.
Special
Brexit Outlook: Down to the wire
The negotiations on a EU-UK trade deal are reaching a climax. Even as the scope of the aspired agreement remains limited, there is a non-negligible chance that the talks still collapse. However, the economic effects are overshadowed by the pandemic.
Special
Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension?
Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.
Special
Four rays of hope amid the gloom of coronavirus
The coronavirus has a devastating impact on societies and economies, but never before have so many resources been channelled at finding ways to mitigate a virus. Hopes are pinned on vaccines, medicines, testing and increased health care capacity.
Special
Brexit: Outlook 2020
Brexit has finally become a done deal, but the next phase of the negotiations is much broader in scope. The little time available limits the potential of any EU-UK agreement. Indeed, Brexit has been gradually defined in much harder ways.
Special
The Great Brexit Gamble
Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
Special
Brexit Outlook: Take control!
Prime Minister Johnson has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament. While it was an explosive move, confrontation between Johnson and Parliament has always been inevitable. The EU has been betting on the UK parliament to intervene, but the window has narrowed. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is obviously rising, but secondary to the risk of a general election.
Special
The economic bill of Brexit pre-Brexit
At first glance, the economy of the United Kingdom hasn’t suffered much from Brexit. However, appearances are deceiving and the steady growth of the past two years masks underlying Brexit damage.
Special Dutch version
Wolf! Wolf! Wolf? Increasing US recessionary risks
In this publication we look at three different indications pointing at increasing US recessionary risks. Our treasury yield curve model suggests a 27% probability of a recession in the 17-month window. This probability is much higher than the recession expectation of the NY Fed.
Special Dutch version
Italian elections: three scenario’s
The Italian elections on March 4 will likely yield a hung parliament. The reform outlook is weak and some fiscal slippage is likely. We believe the risk of an unexperienced nationalist government is limited, but the market might well be underpricing risks.
Special
US: Is there rising wage growth on the horizon?
We predict wage growth to peak at 3.0 to 3.3% in the next two years. While this is higher than current levels, it’s on the low end of the Fed’s preferred range. At the same time, our models show that we’re already getting close to the peak of the economic cycle.