Economic Report
Trump versus Biden: economische impact van tegenovergestelde beleidsagenda’s (Dutch)
Wat is de economische impact van de beleidsagenda’s van de Amerikaanse presidentskandidaten Trump en Biden? We rekenden het uit.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
28 Publications
Special
Biden and Trump policies: Compare and contrast
While both Trump and Biden want to boost economic growth and reduce unemployment, their approaches are radically different. In this report, we try to assess the impact of their policy plans on a range of macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, real income, public debt and trade.
Economic Report
Which jobs are vulnerable in the six-foot economy?
The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.
Special
Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis
While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.
Special
Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None
The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.
Economic Report
Make American productivity great again! (Dutch)
De groei van de Amerikaanse economie staat onder druk door dalende budgetten voor Research & Development en onderwijs. Als de overheid hier meer aan uitgeeft in plaats van aan de huidige belastingverlaging, kan de Amerikaanse structurele groei tot 2030 14 procentpunt hoger uitkomen.
Special
Make American Productivity Great Again: The case for targeted supply-side policies
The slowdown of US productivity growth can be turned around if policymakers would launch an alternative policy agenda, focusing on stimulating investment in science, innovation and education.
Special
Make American Productivity Great Again – Background report
The slowdown of US productivity growth can be turned around if policymakers would launch an alternative policy agenda, focusing on stimulating investment in science, innovation and education.
Video
Make American Productivity Great Again - Video
We discuss the US productivity slowdown and policy options to reverse that trend.
Column
Gaan we de handelsoorlog uit de jaren dertig opnieuw beleven? (Dutch)
Door het beleid van president Trump vrezen velen dat we de handelsoorlog uit de jaren ’30 opnieuw zullen beleven. In deze column gaan we 90 jaar terug in de tijd en belichten de belangrijkste overeenkomsten en verschillen.
Special Dutch version
Trade wars then and now: Smoot-Hawley all over again
The protectionism of the Trump era is similar to the 1930s in terms of motivation, timing, and retaliation. The differences lie in the shift of protectionism through tariffs to non-tariff barriers and the extent of international value chain integration, which makes the impact of protectionist measures less predictable.
Special
De economische impact van handelsoorlogen (Dutch)
Hoewel de effecten van de opleving van protectionisme in de jaren ’30 moeilijk te scheiden zijn van de effecten van de recessie, laat die periode in de economische geschiedenis wel zien dat de gevolgen van een wereldwijde handelsoorlog vele malen groter kunnen zijn dan de beperkte effecten van de huidige schermutselingen.
Special
Trump, Trudeau, Tariffs, Trade, Tijuana - The asymmetric impact of tariffs between the NAFTA partners
The macroeconomic impact of the recently announced tit-for-tat trade-restrictive measures by the NAFTA partners and the EU deviates to a substantial degree between the parties involved, with the smaller ones getting the worst of it. This suggests that trade wars favour bigger economies like the US and EU.