RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

United States: Insurrection at the US Capitol

On January 6, Trump supporters stormed Congress. The ever increasing polarization of US politics and society has reached a level that poses a serious threat to the stability of the country. If the US does not find an off-ramp from this route, we are only going to see a further escalation of civil unrest.

Economic Report

United States: The Georgia Bifurcation

If the Democrats win both run-off elections in Georgia this would open the door to a large fiscal stimulus package and more expansive fiscal policy in the coming years. This would reduce the pressure on the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus through asset purchases.

Special

United States: Billions toward Covid-19 relief

Democrats and Republicans have finally passed a bill on a new Covid-19 relief package which was signed into law by President Trump on Sunday. The size of the fiscal package is estimated at almost $900 billion, although about half of that is money recycled from the CARES Act.

Economic Report

United States: Biden's challenges

Under a Biden administration foreign and trade policy will remain focused on meeting the challenge of China as the main rival of the US. However, the fiscal policy plans of the Democrats are likely to be stopped by the Republicans in the Senate.

Economic Report

United States: Election meltdown

The US election results are coming in slowly and are likely to be contested. This will reduce the legitimacy of the president that will be sworn in in January and further fuel the social unrest.

Column

Het Trumpisme blijft, ook als Trump verliest (Dutch)

Economen denken vaak dat Trump in 2016 de verkiezingen won vanwege economische ongelijkheid, het verlies van banen in de industrie en stagnerende inkomens. Maar dat is niet zo: identiteit speelde een veel grotere rol. En dat gaat niet zomaar weg als Trump verliest.

Special

US elections: Economy or identity?

While economists have framed the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election in terms of economic inequality, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and stagnating income, the empirical evidence rejects these claims and suggests that identity played a more important role than the economy.

Special

US: Turbulence ahead

A second wave of Covid-19, contested elections, civil unrest, rising tensions with China and insufficient fiscal stimulus provide a toxic cocktail that are likely to pose a threat to the recovery and cause considerable market turbulence in Q4.

Economic Report

United States: Civil unrest

The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.

Economic Report

Which jobs are vulnerable in the six-foot economy?

The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.