RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Japan: Worse before better

A new strain of coronavirus has been found in Japan while a third wave of cases sweeps over the country. That will cause the economy to contract in the first quarter of this year. In that sense, the situation will get worse before it gets better.

Economic Update

Emerging markets vulnerability heatmap

The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.

Economic Update

China: Dealing with defaults

Three Chinese State Owned Entities (SOEs) have defaulted on their bonds, possibly foreshadowing there is more to come. Meanwhile, tensions with the US are still increasing, and China’s economic recovery continues to be lopsided.

Economic Update

The Netherlands: Winter dip due to partial lockdown

We expect the economic impact of the partial lockdown to be smaller than the intelligent lockdown last spring, but consumer spending and investments will be hit hard. Because of the partial lockdown, the government announced extra support in the third support package.

Economic Update Dutch version

The Netherlands: Cooler temperatures are coming

We expect the Dutch economy to grow by 1.2 percent in 2020. Exports and investments are hurt by, among others, weaker global growth. Domestically, the nitrogen problems negatively affect investments. Consumers remain an important driver of growth.