Country Report
Brazil: rays of light at the end of the tunnel
Political risks have decreased and the economic downturn seems to be bottoming out, but the out-look of the currently dire fiscal position is still uncertain.
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Country Report
Argentina: normalizing the economy, a tough balancing act
The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.
Country Report
Colombia: low commodity prices weigh on economic growth and public finances
Low commodity prices have been weighing on economic growth and the public finances, but the external position is expected to remain relatively strong. The latter is due to a flexible exchange rate regime and adequate monetary policy.
Country Report
Peru: positive economic outlook
Peru is witnessing a recovery of economic growth, largely driven by increased mining production. Despite a widened twin deficit, prospects are positive.
Country Report
Egypt: economy struggles with lower tourism but is helped by Pound devaluation
Egypt’s economic growth will slow in 2016, as tourism is hurt by last year’s terrorist attacks. The industrial sector is helped by an EGP devaluation and the resulting greater access to FX. The lack of structural reforms will continue to weigh on growth.
Country Report
Bahrain: Structural adjustments are necessary to mitigate the impact of low oil prices
Ongoing low oil prices and social unrest have slowed economic growth, severely affected public finances, and weakened external balances. Solid austerity measures are necessary, but require sufficient public support to avoid more social unrest.
Country Report
Saudi Arabia: reforms are necessary to reduce economic reliance on oil
Lower oil prices put increased pressure on the Saudi economy. Growth is slowing down and the fiscal situation is under pressure. Implementation of the diversification plan (vision 2030) would be a positive factor, but will be difficult to achieve.
Country Report
United Arab Emirates: weathering low oil prices on the back of large buffers
Although the UAE’s economy is more diversified and less dependent on the oil sector than the surrounding Gulf States, low oil prices will continue to negatively affect economic and fiscal metrics. Despite the expected twin deficit in 2016 and 2017, we won’t expect any problems in meeting financing requirements due to UAE’s considerable sovereign wealth fund.
Country Report
Jordan’s economy remains in jeopardy
Jordan’s social and economic dynamics are severely affected by the Syrian crisis, while the government is making progress in consolidating the budget and reducing reliance on a limited number of energy sources.
Country Report
Bulgaria: growth recovering, but challenges ahead
After a mild recovery of the fiscal balance in 2015, the challenge for Bulgaria lies in continuation of prudent policy to enable stable future growth and ensure stable levels of public debt.
Country Report
Croatia: successful reforms much needed but unlikely
Croatia’s short term outlook has improved on the back of higher private consumption, investment and exports. Unfortunately, chances of successful structural and fiscal reforms by the new government are dim, due to its small and likely unstable majority.
Country Report
Luxembourg: staying on top in a changing environment
Luxembourg continued to show robust growth in 2015. New fiscal and financial regulation is heading towards Luxembourg, challenging its financial sector-driven growth model.
Country Report
Portugal: weak reform momentum threatens feeble growth
Portugal continued to grow in 2015, after exiting the EU/IMF bailout programme in 2014, which signals a substantial increase of economic and financial stability. However, reform momentum is weak while the country still has many vulnerabilities.
Country Report
France: Growth returns but remains structurally weak
Economic activity is recovering after several years of near-zero growth. But the French economy still faces many structural challenges, including a relatively weak competitive position, high unemployment and weak public finances.
Country Report
Hungary: Stable growth, but government policies remain unorthodox
Economic growth in 2015 has been robust thanks to the usage of EU-funds and strong external demand. The fiscal situation improved, although with controversial measures. In general, the government maintained its populist and nationalist policies.