RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Economic Update

Japan: Worse before better

A new strain of coronavirus has been found in Japan while a third wave of cases sweeps over the country. That will cause the economy to contract in the first quarter of this year. In that sense, the situation will get worse before it gets better.

Economic Comment

Japan: Crawling out of a recession

The first signs of Japan’s economic recovery are here, albeit tentative. More fiscal stimulus is on the way. More monetary stimulus might be on the way as well, since core inflation has been negative for three months in a row.

Economic Update

China: Dealing with defaults

Three Chinese State Owned Entities (SOEs) have defaulted on their bonds, possibly foreshadowing there is more to come. Meanwhile, tensions with the US are still increasing, and China’s economic recovery continues to be lopsided.

Special

China’s economic recovery: A tale of two speeds

China’s economy is recovering. However, the recovery is unequal. In addition, Covid-19 has increased income inequalities and regional differences. China’s situation might give a glimpse into imbalances in the recovery of other countries as well.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic and external woes continue

Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.

Economic Comment

China: Increasing self-reliance

China’s new Five Year Plan signals the country’s increased focus on self-reliance. Meanwhile, the economic recovery is continuing. Tensions between the US and China are here to stay, irrespective of who the new US president will be.

Economic Comment

Japan: The reign of Suga

Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.

Economic Comment

Japan: A farewell to Abe

Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe has unexpectedly announced his resignation. This means Japan faces a period of increased uncertainty.