Economic Report
During COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the pledges made at COP26 will have to be converted into actions. This article discusses where COP26 left us and what we can expect from the coming ‘African COP.’
Economic Update
Growth of 20.1% in India in Q2 is misleading, as economic output was disrupted by a second Covid-19 outbreak. Going forward, we expect an economic recovery as restrictions ease and mobility increases, fostering consumption and investments.
Special
The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.
Economic Report
India’s economy rebounds quickly and economic pain of the second wave will be concentrated in the second quarter. Inflation number were above inflation target of the RBI in May and June but seem to have peaked. We expect the RBI to remain its accommodative stance for some time to come.
Special
Strong economic recovery by advanced economies is leading to increasing inflation expectations. Tighter monetary policy in advanced economies potentially threatens emerging market economic recovery. Our vulnerability Heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of important economic indicators to signal potential vulnerabilities in 18 economies.
Special
The German economy will recover quickly, driven by foreign- and pent-up demand. Its traditional unease with soaring prices will be tested. The September election is going to be crucial: Germany faces some tough decisions.
Economic Quarterly Report
De economische vooruitzichten zijn de laatste maanden sterk verbeterd. Hoewel de inflatiedruk eveneens toeneemt, verwachten wij niet dat dit leidt tot hogere geld- en kapitaalmarktrentes.
Column
'Interventie' is niet langer een vies woord. Integendeel, veel economen zijn het er inmiddels wel over eens: het neoliberalisme van de afgelopen dertig jaar is te ver doorgeschoten.
Economic Report
One of China’s major state owned entities, Huarong, has come under stress recently. The situation is a test case for Beijing’s willingness to bail out struggling state owned firms that are big and important.
Column
Het nieuwe Chinese vijfjarenplan heeft veel weg van een Rubiks kubus, waarbij een draai van het ene economisch vlak naar de ene kant leidt tot een ongewenste draai ergens anders. China zal dan ook afwegingen moeten maken tussen haar doelstellingen.
Economic Report
China’s Q1 GDP growth surged to 18.3% on a year-to-year basis, mainly due to the low base in Q1 2020. We think the pace of the recovery will slow as the initial pent up demand in China dies out and policy support is scaled back.
Economic Comment
The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.
Special
China’s new five year plan is ambitious, yet it contains inherent trade-offs. When push comes to shove, we believe China will sacrifice growth for resilience and deleveraging for domestic stability.
Special
We expect all ASEAN economies to grow this year, although at different speeds. The current high number of new Covid-19 cases underlines that the virus will continue to challenge economic recovery throughout 2021.
Special
Het investeringsverdrag tussen de EU en China zou op papier meer toegang voor EU-bedrijven moeten bieden tot China en een gelijker speelveld creëren. In de praktijk loopt het risico om een mislukking te worden voor de EU.
