RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

The US standoff on the debt limit: an unnecessary political game

In October we could see both a US government shutdown and a government default if the spending and debt bill approved by the House of Representatives on Tuesday does not pass the Senate. This is a game of chicken between Democrats and Republicans that is completely unnecessary.

Economic Report

United States: American Jobs Plan

President Biden has presented his American Jobs Plan, which amounts to about $2 trillion in spending on infrastructure and care. This should be financed by raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% and by other tax measures aimed at corporations.

Economic Report

United States: Insurrection at the US Capitol

On January 6, Trump supporters stormed Congress. The ever increasing polarization of US politics and society has reached a level that poses a serious threat to the stability of the country. If the US does not find an off-ramp from this route, we are only going to see a further escalation of civil unrest.

Economic Report

United States: The Georgia Bifurcation

If the Democrats win both run-off elections in Georgia this would open the door to a large fiscal stimulus package and more expansive fiscal policy in the coming years. This would reduce the pressure on the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus through asset purchases.

Economic Report

United States: Biden's challenges

Under a Biden administration foreign and trade policy will remain focused on meeting the challenge of China as the main rival of the US. However, the fiscal policy plans of the Democrats are likely to be stopped by the Republicans in the Senate.

Economic Report

United States: Election meltdown

The US election results are coming in slowly and are likely to be contested. This will reduce the legitimacy of the president that will be sworn in in January and further fuel the social unrest.

Column

Het Trumpisme blijft, ook als Trump verliest (Dutch)

Economen denken vaak dat Trump in 2016 de verkiezingen won vanwege economische ongelijkheid, het verlies van banen in de industrie en stagnerende inkomens. Maar dat is niet zo: identiteit speelde een veel grotere rol. En dat gaat niet zomaar weg als Trump verliest.

Economic Report

United States: Civil unrest

The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.

Economic Report

Which jobs are vulnerable in the six-foot economy?

The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.

Economic Report

The US recession of 2020 - The horror version

We expect US GDP to fall by 6% in 2020. After a sharp supply-induced contraction in March we expect the economy to rebound after the lockdown is over. However, the damage done to demand is likely to remain a drag on the economy for years.

Economic Report

US helicopter money

The US federal government is considering sending ‘helicopter money’ to Americans as an attractive alternative to outright monetary financing. This can be effective in slowing down a sharp decline in consumer spending, although it will probably not be enough to bring the economy back on an upward growth path.

Economic Report

Recession and CLOs

While CLOs performed well during the last crisis, and there is less dependence on short-term wholesale funding, the rise of loans with reduced investor protection and illiquidity are risk factors that could turn a run-of-the-mill recession into something worse.