RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Chile (Update country report)

Chile’s economy continued to grow vigorously in 2011, although growth slowed in the course of the year. After large scale protests and strikes, these illustrate that Chile’s social model continues to face challenges.

Country Report

South Korea (Country report)

The death of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il, has increased political uncertainty within North Korea and led to uncertainty for South Korea. Due to monetary tightening and lower external demand, real GDP growth was 3.3% in 2011.

Country Report

Azerbaijan (Country report)

Azerbaijan is highly dependent on its energy sector and oil exports in particular, which supports the current account and public finances. Economic growth is forecasted at 4% in 2012.

Country Report

Jordan (Country report)

The precarious social situation is the largest country risk in Jordan. The fallout from the Arab Spring protests has forced King Abdullah II to dismiss the government. Economic growth is estimated at a mere 2.6% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.

Country Report

Nigeria (Update country report

Persistent attacks by the Islamist Boko Haram sect, as well as large-scale strikes and protests following a sudden abolishment of fuel subsidies at the start of 2012, show that Nigeria is very prone to political and civil unrest.

Country Report

Bulgaria (Country report)

Bulgaria is largely praised for its sound macroeconomic and fiscal policies, but its external debt remains high and a slow and complicated bureaucracy, as well as widespread corruption continues to hamper the business environment.

Country Report

Bangladesh (Country report)

Bangladesh's economy continues to prove its resilience amid a worsening external environment. Yet, despite strong economic growth it remains one of the world's poorest countries.

Economic Comment

Did Germany's GDP contract in 11Q4?

November’s industrial production figure has been interpreted by some as proof that Germany’s economy dipped into the red in the final quarter of 2011. We still believe a recession is not a done deal yet.

Economic Comment

Germany: Is recession a done deal?

Some have taken Germany’s recent annual growth figure (3%) as a sign that the economy has contracted by 0.2%-0.3% in 11Q4. But this will only hold true if the data on the first three quarters are not revised, which may well be the case.

Economic Comment

Is a weaker euro desirable now?

The depreciation of the euro may not result in the much-needed boost to the region’s net exports. However, it is making life difficult for households. The rise in the price of oil to near record highs is adding to eurozone’s economic woes.

Economic Comment

Hungary: Jumping off a cliff? (Macro Comment)

Hungary’s government is becoming increasingly autocratic, thereby threatening to undo years of democracy-building, while simultaneously risking a sovereign default.

Country Report

Tanzania (Country report)

Despite chronic power shortages and rampant inflation, Tanzania’s economy managed to grow at an estimated 6.4% in 2011.

Country Report

Lebanon (Country report)

The largest country risks in Lebanon lie in the political sphere, as the conflicts between the coalition party and main opposition party are fierce and hinder any progress on economic reforms. The economic outlook is bleak.

Economic Comment

Is the global economy stabilising?

The December manufacturing PMIs have surprised on the upside. We should take comfort that the deterioration in PMIs is nowhere close to what we witnessed at the height of the crisis in 2008-09.