RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Brexit Monitor: Running out of time

Our Brexit Monitor keeps you up to date with the latest Brexit developments. What effects will Brexit have, and what can you expect? An overview of the main news and analysis from experts.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards?

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now

The United Kingdom Parliament finally gets their turn on Brexit. In the evening of 15 January the MP’s will vote on the EU-UK deal and we expect that they will reject the current deal. That will push the UK into several weeks of political turbulence.

Economic Comment

De Duitse diesel slaat niet zo snel af (Dutch)

De Duitse economie is in het vierde kwartaal weer duidelijk aangetrokken, hoewel het onderliggende groeitempo is vertraagd. De komende jaren zal zij naar verwachting groeien met jaarlijks 1,5-2,0 procent.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: To vote or not to vote?

Prime Minister May decided to cancel the ‘meaningful vote’ of the British Parliament on the deal with the EU scheduled for 11 December. Instead she will attempt to get more concessions from the EU during the summit on 13-14 December. Getting the deal through the British Parliament remains a challenge.

Economic Comment

The next US recession

The US yield curve is getting flatter, which means that long term rates are only slightly higher than short term rates. We expect the yield curve to invert in 2019, which means that long rates fall below short rates. This would signal a recession in 2020.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: The finals

The United Kingdom and the EU have reached a deal in the Brexit negotiations. Unfortunately the road to an orderly Brexit remains a bumpy one and getting the deal approved by the UK Parliament is the main challenge.

Economic Comment

Nederlandse economische groei valt tegen (Dutch)

De groei van de Nederlandse economie zwakte in het derde kwartaal af naar het laagste niveau in twee jaar. Vooral investeringen vielen tegen, waarbij vooral woninginvesteringen door stagnerende nieuwbouw opvallen.