RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Costa Rica (Country Report)

Thanks to considerable fiscal stimulus, Costa Rica has weathered the global economic crisis and the decline in US demand for its exports relatively well. As stimulus is not yet withdrawn and prospects for the US economy are improving, economic growth for the next years is expected to reach 4.3% on average

Country Report

Dominican Republic (Country report)

After having avoided dipping into recession in 2009 on the back of countercyclical fiscal and monetary stimulus made possible by an IMF stand-by agreement, the Dominican Republic’s economic recovery outpaced most of its neighbours in 2010. I

Country Report

Chile (Country Report)

Chile remains a country characterized by good macroeconomic policies and high quality institutions. The country was hit by a heavy earthquake in early 2010, but the impact of this event on country risk has been fairly limited.

Country Report

Jordan (Country report)

Jordan was confronted with some spill-over from the Tunisian democratic revolution, there is strong support among the people for the King. The King is relatively modern, but the country ranks low on the “Democracy Index”

Country Report

Fiji (Country report)

The military coup in 2006 marked a continuation of Fiji’s tumultuous political history. Coup leader Bainimarama has remained in charge since, at the cost of democracy. The coup and subsequent repression has isolated Fiji internationally

Country Report

Brunei (Country report)

The prosperous country of Brunei derives its wealth from an abundance of oil and gas resources. The economy contracted 1.8% yoy in 2009 and is estimated to have grown over 1% in 2010, on the back of higher global commodity prices

Country Report

Nigeria (Country report)

In spite of a growing non-oil economy, Nigeria’s economic development is still very much dependent on developments in the oil sector. Since oil revenues account for 89% of total exports, the economy is extremely vulnerable to oil price shocks

Special

Asset bubbles, financial crises and the role of human behaviour

Every time we witness a collapse in asset prices or a financial crisis, we seemoverwhelmed. Even the most experienced investors, economic forecasters and regulators are caught off-guard. But if we look closer at the historical data for the past two centuries, we see dat asset bubles and financial crises are nothing new to mankind.

Special

A new global financial infrastructure

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in 1971, the world’s monetary system has been based on a so-called ‘paper standard’. In this system, the US dollar plays the role of global currency anchor.

Country Report

Country Report Paraguay

Paraguay has posted a very high economic growth rate in 2010, thanks to rapid growth of exports of soybeans and meat. However, the economic structure of the country remains weak, in particular through the strong dependence on agricultural export products.

Country Report

Country Report Romania

The fragile political stability is currently the main weakness of Romania. Although the cabinet survived three votes of no-confidence last year, dissatisfaction also within the coalition over the harsh austerity measures is rising.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Economic recovery in Bulgaria was weak in 2010 (-0.1%), largely because domestic demand and investment were suppressed by higher unemployment and still tight credit conditions. For 2011 and 2012, a slow recovery is expected to around 2.5% and 3.5%, respectively.

Country Report

Country Report Azerbaijan

After Azerbaijan managed to post strong growth in 2009, slow growth in oil and gas output will constrain GDP growth to between 3 and 4 percent in the coming years.