RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Spanish elections: Día de la Marmota

Spain’s elections failed to solve the deadlock in parliament. Scraping a majority will be extremely difficult. The stalemate will not send the economy into crisis, but it prevents the economy and public finances from being prepared for one.

Economic Comment

Eurozone economic growth slows down

In the third quarter of 2018, the Eurozone economy grew by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter. October PMI indicators showed a sharper drop than expected, indicating that growth in Q4 will probably remain low.

Economic Comment

Italy’s political crisis continues

The short-term economic impact of the current political turmoil is limited. Italy will likely keep the Euro, but a government with Five Star and the League could severely damage debt sustainability and longer term growth prospects.

Economic Comment

The defence spending gap in the EU

The EU is temporarily exempted from the steel and aluminium tariffs in the US. While seeking permanent exemption, it might be difficult for the EU to increase defence spending to the satisfaction of the US, due to the possibly massive costs involved.