RaboResearch - Economic Research

Column

Waarom het Chinees vijfjarenplan op een Rubiks kubus lijkt (Dutch)

Het nieuwe Chinese vijfjarenplan heeft veel weg van een Rubiks kubus, waarbij een draai van het ene economisch vlak naar de ene kant leidt tot een ongewenste draai ergens anders. China zal dan ook afwegingen moeten maken tussen haar doelstellingen.

Economic Report

China GDP growth outlook: Still recovering, but losing steam

China’s Q1 GDP growth surged to 18.3% on a year-to-year basis, mainly due to the low base in Q1 2020. We think the pace of the recovery will slow as the initial pent up demand in China dies out and policy support is scaled back.

Special

China’s economic recovery: A tale of two speeds

China’s economy is recovering. However, the recovery is unequal. In addition, Covid-19 has increased income inequalities and regional differences. China’s situation might give a glimpse into imbalances in the recovery of other countries as well.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic and external woes continue

Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.

Special

How COVID-19 will impact ASEAN: Deep recessions and a weak recovery

We think most ASEAN economies will enter a deep recession this year. The recovery next year will be modest, held back by weak external demand, social distancing and weak consumer sentiment. Also, ASEAN currencies will face another bout of depreciations.

Economic Report

Trumponomics: Trans-Pacific Partnership is the first trade victim

In this piece, we analyze which region loses most because of the TPP withdrawal by Trump. The US withdrawal has given China, which was excluded from TPP, opportunities to fill a void and to further expand its influence in Asia.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global economic outlook: clouds in the rear- view mirror, storm on the horizon?

Economic growth is expected to slow down only slightly this year as global economic conditions are not as dramatic as recent financial markets turbulence suggests. There is no simple and accessible alternative to further monetary easing, whose effectiveness is diminishing while the negative side effects are compounding.

Economic Comment

De wereld drijft in olie (Dutch)

Overschot aan olie houdt prijzen laag in 2016. Dat is per saldo een plus voor de wereldeconomie, maar vormt wel een risico voor inflatieverwachtingen. Bovendien verslechteren de economische omstandigheden in olie exporterende landen.

Country Report

Kenya: climbing economy, sliding currency

Kenya’s economy continues to grow strongly, but the depreciating currency poses short term risks for inflation and debt service. In the medium term, elections in 2018 could give rise to increased ethnic tensions and result in civil unrest.