RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Vette en magere jaren (Dutch)

Over 2019 is het overschot op de begroting circa duizend euro per inwoner. Over een paar jaar kan het overschot echter weer omslaan in een tekort. Hoe kan dat? En hoe kunnen we de overschotten toekomstgericht inzetten?

Economic Comment

Trump: graven de Democraten een kuil voor zichzelf? (Dutch)

Zolang voldoende Republikeinen in de Senaat achter Trump blijven staan, wordt hij niet uit zijn ambt gezet. De start van het impeachment-onderzoek door de Democraten in het Huis van Afgevaardigden kan echter wel een averechts effect hebben op de kans voor de Democraten om de presidentsverkiezingen te winnen.

Economic Comment Dutch version

EURIBOR reforms: Same car, different engine

EURIBOR will continue to exist for the foreseeable future, albeit with a new methodology. So there is no immediate risk of disruption. Still, contracts should include robust fall-backs for the eventuality that EURIBOR is discontinued in the future.

Economic Comment Dutch version

EONIA switches to €STR

€STR was launched in October as replacement for EONIA, which will be discontinued after 2021. The switch to €STR directly affects contracts that reference EONIA and mature after 2021. It may also impact valuations of other contracts.

Economic Comment Dutch version

USD LIBOR’s days are numbered

Beyond 2021 the publication of USD LIBOR fixings is not guaranteed. SOFR has been selected as the preferred successor. To avoid potential disruption in the event USD LIBOR ceases to exist, robust fall-back language should be implemented in contracts.

Economic Comment Dutch version

Benchmark reforms: Bigger than Brexit?

Globally, LIBOR rates that have long served as benchmark rates, are being replaced with better alternatives. Widespread reliance on these rates means that introducing new benchmarks comes with potential legal, financial, and operational risks.