RaboResearch - Economic Research


Re-assessing the US-China trade war

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.


The crisis and recovery of Spain’s labour market

During the crisis, unemployment in Spain increased rapidly. In the past years, employment has substantially recovered due to strong economic growth and labour market reforms. That said, the unemployment rate is still high and significant challenges remain.


Cybercrimi’s & cryptoknaken (Dutch)

De opkomst van cryptovaluta heeft zowel bijgedragen aan innovatie als aan de opkomst van bepaalde vormen van cybercriminaliteit. De reden daarvan is dat crypto’s de anonimiteit van cash combineren met de voordelen van digitale betalingen.


Emerging Markets Vulnerability Heatmap

We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.


An assessment of the Indian rupee crisis

The Indian rupee (INR) has been the worst performing currency in Asia, losing more than 12%. Given the outcome of our EM Vulnerability Heatmap, models and expected additional policy interventions, we expect strengthening of the Indian rupee in the short term.


Duurzame dilemma’s en onvolledige oplossingsrichtingen (Dutch)

De grootste klimaatuitdagingen van nu zijn minder broeikasgassen uitstoten en beter omgaan met grondstoffen. In deze Special houden we de effecten van de energietransitie en de circulaire economie tegen het licht. Twee veel besproken oplossingsrichtingen.

Special Dutch version

Trade wars then and now: Smoot-Hawley all over again

The protectionism of the Trump era is similar to the 1930s in terms of motivation, timing, and retaliation. The differences lie in the shift of protectionism through tariffs to non-tariff barriers and the extent of international value chain integration, which makes the impact of protectionist measures less predictable.