Column
Het opwaarts potentieel van Sub-Sahara Afrika blijft enorm en de regio heeft verbeteringen laten zien in termen van kindersterfte en democratie. Echter, om het potentieel te verzilveren moeten instituties structureel verbeteren.
Special Dutch version
Sub-Saharan Africa is facing headwinds from lower commodity prices, China’s slower growth, and normalization of monetary policy in the US. This has made the region’s economic outlook challenging, though not imminently gloomy.
Special Dutch version
Sub-Saharan Africa is facing headwinds from lower commodity prices, a slower growing China and possibly rising US interest rates. This has made the economic outlook gloomier but we still expect the region to grow about 4% in the near future.
Special Dutch version
Sub-Saharan Africa has made significant progress on political stability in the past two decades. Nevertheless stability remains fragile and there are regional differences. Besides, institutional quality in Sub-Saharan Africa remains weak.
Infographic Dutch version
Sub-Saharan Africa, climbing mount progress amidst a challenging environment.
Country Report
Kenya’s economy continues to grow strongly, but the depreciating currency poses short term risks for inflation and debt service. In the medium term, elections in 2018 could give rise to increased ethnic tensions and result in civil unrest.
Country Report
Lebanon’s economy continues to show weak growth in 2014 (3%), being adversely effected by the conflict in Syria. But the banking sector remains healthy and Lebanon still has ample foreign reserves, which mitigates its otherwise high country risk.
Country Report
Jordan’s economic situation is improving. GDP growth has picked up to 3.1% in 2014, driven by lower oil prices and growth in the tourism sector. The greatest risk is still that the conflicts in Syria and Iraq will lead to negative spill-overs.
Economic Report
Iran’s nuclear deal will be a clear plus for its economy and its trade partners. Globally, the economic impact is mainly through lower oil prices. Geopolitically, it might increase tensions within the Middle East as Iran becomes more powerful.
Economic Comment
Door de onlangs gesloten raamwerkovereenkomst zullen Westerse sancties tegen Iran mogelijk opgeheven worden. Als deze deal er komt zal Iraanse olie weer toegang hebben tot de wereldmarkt, wat olieprijzen verder zal drukken dan tot dusver werd verwacht.
Special
The recent plunge in oil prices will be a net plus for the global economy. The pain will be felt by major oil producers and for some this may cause serious problems. However, we still expect the global economy to gain more than the losers will lose.