RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

UK: to QE or not to QE?

The pace of economic recovery is slowing before the fiscal squeeze has kicked in. But the BoE is hesitant to launch QE2 given the higherthan expected inflation (expectations). There are definitely short-term upside risks to inflation, mostly due to the VAT hike in January 2011.

Economic Report

Public debt: nothing to fear but fear itself

Investors are worried that rising public debt to GDP ratios in the advanced economies will eventually lead to a wave of sovereign defaults. To calm market nerves, therefore, governments have announced austerity measures to lower debt ratios to more ‘sustainable levels’.

Economic Report

Deflation, here we come?

Deflationary risks are rising in the advanced economies. This has made some worry that a Japan-style deflationary episode is awaiting us. In our view, these particular concerns are exaggerated.

Economic Report

Continuing housing surplus in Ireland

Too many residential dwellings were built in Ireland for many years from the start of this century. The large number of assumptions and estimates precludes a precise estimation of the housing surplus in our analysis.

Economic Report

UK Budget: good politics, bad economics?

The UK government claimed that the fiscal consolidation plan will be tough and they certainly did not disappoint. The government plans to reduce its structural budget deficit by 8% of GDP over the next five years.

Economic Report

Is Britain the next Greece?

In our view, there are ten reasons why the UK will not go down the ‘Greek path’ anytime soon. But the new government must plug in its fiscal black hole if it wishes to retain its debt sustainability and its cherished AAA rating.

Economic Report

Liquidity requirements from Basel make life tougher for banks

In December 2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision made proposals to harmonise the oversight of banks’ liquidity. Are these new requirements even more stringent for the banking sector than the proposals for tighter capital requirements?

Economic Report

India looking East

India has never been a big player in international trade. Nevertheless, over the past twenty years, the country has developed its trade relations. India started in 1991 with its ‘Look East’ policy, trying to gain better access to regional markets in Asia.

Economic Report

The return of IFI lending

The global financial crisis has brought the IMF, the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFI’s) back to the spotlights. With large emergency loan packages, they have helped countries to deal with the severe economic shocks.

Economic Report

Chili: nature strikes

One of the strongest earthquakes to ever hit Chile occurred on 27 February 2010. The country’s infrastructure sustained massive damage and the death toll is currently estimated around 600. As a result of the earthquake, economic activity will be subdued in the short term.

Economic Report

Chili: a step to the right

Since the return to democracy in 1990, the center-left oriented coalition, the Concertación, had won every presidential election. In fact, Piñera is the first right-wing candidate to win a democratic presidential election since Jorge Allisandri Rodríguez won the presidency in 1958.