RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

UK: Stagflation nation

The economy of the United Kingdom experiences a ‘European’ demand shock but also has ‘American’ labour shortages. Weak growth and high inflation is the result. Meanwhile, there is a constant threat of a trade war with the European Union.

Special

United States: The inevitable recession

A recession seems inevitable for the US: even if the economy is able to absorb the exogenous shocks to the supply side, the response of the central bank to the wage-price spiral will cause a recession from within.

Special

The Third Round of French Elections

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.

Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

Special

United States: Yield curve inversions and recessions

Yield curve inversions are often seen as warning signals of a recession, but a statistical analysis suggests that these signals should be interpreted with care. We provide the thresholds that would indicate a probability of a recession higher than 50%.

Special

New Zealand: Two sides of the same coin

The economic effect of Omicron will be contained in Q1 before growth accelerates from Q2 onwards. However, higher prices and lower global growth, fuelled by the war in Ukraine, drag on economic growth in the second half of 2022. As such, the recovery is likely to be not as strong as it looks at face value.