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Eurozone growth comes in at 0.3% in the second quarter of 2016

Economic Comment

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Eurostat released a preliminary flash GDP estimate this morning, coming in at 0.3% quarterly growth in the second quarter of 2016. This figure was in line with market expectations. Growth was slower than in the first quarter of the year, as we expected. A further breakdown of the numbers is not yet available, but production indicators signalled a softening of growth throughout the quarter, supporting today’s figure. National data seem to point to a slowdown across most member states, though German growths is expected to hold up firmly.

Figure 1: Real GDP growth in the euro area
Figure 1: Real GDP growth in the euro areaSource: Eurostat

France, Spain, Belgium and Austria also released their national GDP estimates this morning. French economic growth ground to a halt (0.0%), a significant slowdown from the first quarter’s (revised) 0.7% figure. Consumption slumped and was flat at 0.0%. The euro cup tournament may have boosted some types of spending but this was probably offset by weaker activity elsewhere. Production slowed slightly due to the May and June strikes. Growth in Spain slowed down to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, from 0.8% in the previous quarter. Belgium reported an uptick in growth to 0.5%, from 0.2% in the first three months of the year. Austria’s economic activity expanded by just 0.3%, compared to the first quarter’s 0.7%.

The Brexit outcome of the UK’s EU referendum is not yet visible in these figures as it took place at the end of the second quarter.

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Author(s)
Daniel van Schoot
RaboResearch Netherlands Rabobank KEO
+31 30 21 62666

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