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Outlook 2016


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Stable growth outlook for Dutch economy amid global economic uncertainty

Economic growth has returned to the Netherlands after years of crisis, recession and stagnation. The Dutch economy is forecast to grow by 2½% in 2016, after projected growth of 2% in 2015. This growth is broad-based, as private consumption and private investment are also making a contribution in addition to exports. High unemployment remains an issue, however, and export growth is surrounded by uncertainties. The global economy is continuing to grow at a reasonable pace, but it is not really taking off unaided. Looking at the broad picture, we see slower growth in China, lower commodity prices and the expected increase in US interest rates all putting pressure on growth rates in emerging countries. In addition, while we are being forced to stick to an extremely expansionary monetary policy, there are increasing signs that in the longer term it will have side effects that dampen growth and that it leads to a risk of new crises. Furthermore, unresolved structural problems such as high levels of debt, weak economic expansion in a number of emerging markets and the associated low commodity prices remain a source of uncertainty for the currency markets.
Read more in our Outlook 2016.


Introduction Outlook 2016: green surrounded by orange
In an international climate where so many indicators are orange, we should count our blessings for now that the Netherlands is set to be a green oasis both this year and next. Things have looked rather different in recent years.

Outlook 2016: The Netherlands
In 2015 and 2016, the Dutch economy is poised to grow at a rate we would not have thought possible just a few years ago. On top of that, the increase in economic activity is occurring across the economy as a whole.

Outlook 2016: Global Economic Outlook
Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Outlook 2016: Financial Markets
While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.

Background studies

An overview of the background studies accompanying the Outlook 2016 can be found below.

ECB Special: Will it cut it, by Elwin de Groot and Bas van Geffen - 16 November 2015
FX: the relentless march of the currency war, by Jane Foley - 13 November 2015
Rabo Rate Directions: predicting(& trading) the ECB’s next moves, by Richard McGuire and others - 13 November 2015
China: SDR – who, when, how, what, where?, by Michael Every, 11 November 2015
US: thinking about the next US recession, by Philip Marey - 30 October 2015


Dutch economy - Stable growth outlook amid global economic uncertainty


Monetary balancing act - The challenge of policy normalisation


Green surrounded by orange
Wim Boonstra comments on the prospects for the Dutch and global economy as detailed in the Outlook 2016.

Global economic outlook
Allard Bruinshoofd comments on the international economic outlook as detailed in the Outlook 2016.

Financial markets outlook
Elwin de Groot reviews the outlook for the financial markets as detailed in the Outlook 2016.

Dutch economic outlook
Tim Legierse provides a commentary on the economic outlook for the Netherlands as detailed in the Outlook 2016.

Wim Boonstra
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets Rabobank KEO
Tim Legierse
RaboResearch Netherlands, Economics and Sustainability Rabobank KEO
Allard Bruinshoofd
Rabobank KEO
Elwin de Groot
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets Rabobank KEO

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