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Outlook 2015



Outlook 2015 - Europe: future leader or eternal laggard?

In the Outlook publication, Rabobank presents her yearly economic predictions for the coming year. The macroeconomic ‘Outlook 2015’ is published alongside the Thematic booklet ‘Prosperity in the new economic reality’. Below you can also find our infographics, videos and background studies.

The study ‘Outlook 2015 - Europe: future leader or eternal laggard?’ can be downloaded here as a pdf-file (7,5 Mb), or can be read via the links below as a web page.

Global economic outlook - Recovery, but no reason for over-optimism
The global economy is now growing at a rate of around 4% a year, but growth rates in different areas vary widely. Among the industrialised countries, the United States and the United Kingdom are generating relatively high rates of growth. In the eurozone however, the recovery is still far from convincing. Europe continues to be the problem child of the global economy.

Financial markets outlook - On the way to quantitative easing in the eurozone
Attention in the financial markets has turned to the possibility of an interest-rate hike by the Fed. If we assume that the Fed will want to ensure that the economic recovery is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates, this will not take place until the end of 2015 at the earliest. The ECB has once again broken with various taboos in the past year in its attempts to support the fragile economic recovery and ward off disinflationary forces. Since inflation has remained stubbornly lower than forecast over the past year and expectations for inflation in the medium to longer term have sharply declined, the ECB has come under increasing pressure to take additional measures.

Dutch economic outlook - Better, but not good enough
The prospects for economic growth for the Netherlands in our Outlook 2015 are the highest in the past four years. We expect economic growth to double in 2015. Unemployment is falling, disposable household income is rising for the second year in a row and the recovery in the housing market is continuing. It is very important for the economic future of the Netherlands that the Cabinet takes serious steps towards a new tax system in 2015.

Forecast table - Outlook 2015 in figures
Our forecast for 2015

Theme Report - Prosperity in the new economic reality
In our current economic model, economic growth as measured by GDP is an end in itself. This has come about partly because economic growth is wrongly considered to be the most relevant measure of progress. The current design of our social system also makes it difficult to break this addiction to growth. A society less focused on economic growth would be a desirable development for a number of reasons.

Theme report - ''Connected everything' demands flexible business models'
For companies, the expected developments mean not just that they have to continually adapt their products and services but often also that they need to adopt completely new business models and organisational structures. In this document we present our views on the changes that are required in business models - for we see organisational flexibility as becoming an increasingly important factor in determining a company's success.

Infographic - Europe: future leader or eternal laggard?
Our Outlook 2015 in a nutshell.

Video - Global economic outlook
Wim Boonstra comments on the international economic outlook.

Video - Financial markets outlook
Elwin de Groot reviews the outlook for the financial markets.

Video - Dutch economic outlook
Tim Legierse provides a commentary on the economic outlook for the Netherlands.

Background studies
An overview of the background studies accompanying the Outlook 2015 can be found below.

The Fed’s checklist, author: Philip Marey - 24 November 2014
Talking our book, authors: Richard McGuire, Lyn Graham-Taylor - 14 November 2014
FX: Race to the bottom - 2015, author: Jane Foley - 21 November 2014
Second vs. Third: FX wars ahead?, author: Michael Every - 19 November 2014
Rabo EM FX Vulnerability: 2015, author: Christian Lawrence - 25 November 2014

Visie op 2015 (Outlook 2015)
All our content is also available in Dutch: www.rabobank.com/economie

Wim Boonstra
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets Rabobank KEO
+31 6 5128 1405
Hans Stegeman
RaboResearch Netherlands, Economics and Sustainability Rabobank KEO
Tim Legierse
RaboResearch Netherlands, Economics and Sustainability Rabobank KEO
Elwin de Groot
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets Rabobank KEO
+31 6 1389 2916

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