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Outlook 2014

Special

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In the Outlook publication, Rabobank presents her yearly economic predictions for the coming year. The macroeconomic ‘Outlook 2014’ is published alongside the Thematic booklet ‘Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater’. Below you can also find our infographics, videos and background studies.

Outlook 2014 – Recovery on a shaky footing
The Dutch economy is not expected to grow in 2014. Unemployment expected to rise further, and the slight boost provided by strengthening external demand will probably not be enough to compensate for the country’s domestic economic woes. The stronger economic performance in the US and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth acceleration next year.

Global economic outlook – Policy decisions are key
We expect the global economy to start picking up steam next year, with growth increasing from 3.25% this year to 3.75% in 2014. The US and the eurozone will account for more than half of this growth acceleration, and therein, in essence, lie the main risks currently facing the world economy.

Financial markets – Less liquidity, more attention to the fundamentals
The mood in the financial markets will be strongly determined by the timing and pace of the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its asset purchase programme. Pending a resolution of the political uncertainty in the US, we anticipate that the Fed will begin its tapering process in the Spring of 2014 and will have ended quantitative easing by the Autumn.

The Netherlands – Seven years of tribulation
Economic activity in the Netherlands will stabilise in 2014, with a slightly more promising outlook for the following years. As far as the recovery goes, the Dutch economy remains dependent on external demand. The government and many households will continue to focus on repairing their balance sheets in the next few years, which will put a dampen domestic spending growth.

Forecast table – Outlook 2014 in figures
Our forecast for 2014.

Theme Report – Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater
Coinciding with the publication of our macroeconomic Outlook 2014, we are publishing a thematic Report titled “Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater”. In this publication, we present our views on the euro crisis and the future of the monetary union. One of the conclusions of the report is that the current institutional reforms are not far-reaching enough to make the eurozone fully immune to crises in the future.

Infographic – Fragile economic outlook
Our Outlook 2014 in a nutshell.

Infographic – Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater
Our special thematic report at a glance.

Video – International economic outlook
Allard Bruinshoofd comments on the international economic outlook.

Video – Financial market outlook
Jan Lambregts reviews the outlook for the financial markets.

Video – Outlook for interest rates and exchange rates
Elwin de Groot’s commentary on the interest-rate and exchange-rate outlook.

Video – Economic outlook for the Netherlands
Hans Stegeman provides a commentary on the Dutch economic outlook.

Background studies
An overview of the background studies accompanying the Outlook 2014 can be found below.
Economic Report Eurozone
Economic Report United Kingdom
Economic Report China
Eurozone credit remains key concern
Inflation risk in many guises
Revisiting Currency Vulnerabilities
The macro-economic effects of the shale gas revolution
Looking to the future through a ‘liquidity lens’

Visie op 2014 (Outlook 2014)
All our content is also available in Dutch: economie.rabobank.com.

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Author(s)
Hans Stegeman
RaboResearch Netherlands Rabobank KEO
+31 88 726 7864
Allard Bruinshoofd
Rabobank KEO
+31 30 21 62666

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