RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Leading on the edge or off the edge?

On 14 February another British Parliament vote on Brexit passed by without any change of course. PM May might take Brexit to the wire in order to prevent a large rupture of the Conservative Party and maintain pressure on various decision makers. 27 February looks like the next milestone.

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Meteoronomie (Dutch)

Voor hun voorspellingen zouden economen graag net als meteorologen beschikking hebben over meer real time data. Zullen de woningmarktcijfers over januari – nu nog niet beschikbaar – onze verwachting ondersteunen dat de huizenprijsstijging in 2019 afzwakt?

Economic Report

National emergency on the US-Mexico border

President Trump declared a national emergency on the US-Mexico border that will allow him to divert funds to build the wall. The Democrats are likely to challenge this decision, bringing the country closer to a constitutional crisis.

Economic Report

Very dangerous cars

Trump received the report into whether automotive imports are a threat to the US national security. Although the conclusion of the report has not been released yet, it is likely that Trump now has 90 days to decide on imposing tariffs on imports related to cars.

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Brexitwaanzin (Dutch)

Het Verenigd Koninkrijk is het geboorteland van twee van de grootste economen aller tijden: Adam Smith en John Maynard Keynes. Het vaderland van economische theorie gedraagt zich nu alles behalve rationeel. Brexitwaanzin!

Special

Should the ECB consider issuing its own securities?

The ECB could use Central Bank Securities too mop up liquidity. The use of this instrument may bring the additional advantage of the creation of a EMU-wide ‘safe asset’. This may bring advantages for the stability of the Eurozone.

Column Dutch version

Structural confusion

Assessing US tax cuts, Italian public spending, and Fed or ECB policy all require a distinction between the 'cyclical' and 'structural'. But even when you who know the difference, it is easy to make a policy mistake.