RaboResearch - Economic Research

2 December 2016

Uncertain economic outlook calls for robust policy

As in previous years, the global economic developments are highly uncertain. Geopolitical uncertainty, elections in various European countries and the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States are examples of these uncertainties. Moderate global economic growth is the most likely scenario. Against this uncertain international background, three scenarios have been developed for the Netherlands for the period until the end of 2023.

All this and more is discussed in our Outlook 2017.

Outlook 2017: The Netherlands
The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2017. Just like the global economy, the Dutch economy is at a crossroads. There are uncertainties on both the demand side and the supply side of the economy. Are we entering a lengthy period of underspending due to deglobalisation, or will rapid technological progress lead to new economic growth? The uncertainties have been developed into three scenarios: Muddling Through, The Fourth Industrial Revolution and Deglobalisation.

Outlook 2017: The global economy in the Trump era
The global economy has been growing at a moderate rate of around 3 per cent for many years. We expect to see similar growth figures in the coming years. But the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States has hugely raised the level of global uncertainty.

Outlook 2017: Financial Markets
Is there still a ‘way back’ for the financial markets, or will Brexit and Trump lead to huge volatility? The economy is still faltering and there is a high degree of political uncertainty.

Infographic

Infographic Outlook 2017