May 3, 2016
We expect that economic growth in Europe will remain subdued in the coming years, with most Baltic and CEE countries likely outperforming the others and most Southern and South-Eastern countries expectedly underperforming. Structural growth challenges are significant and unlikely to be adequately dealt with any time soon. Division among member states, increasing populism and complacency withhold the EU and individual member states from necessary reforms to raise the longer term growth potential of European countries and improve the block’s resilience to shocks. Due to abundant liquidity in the system, the lack of strong growth and reforms currently barely leads to financial market stress and higher government bond yields. As such, the current expansive monetary policy in Europe lowers incentives for difficult, yet necessary, firm policy action. So on top of delivering only moderately positive results for the economy in the short term, current monetary policy for sure does not solve structural challenges. In fact, it also brings along counterproductive side effects and carries risks.
Regional study Europe: Monetary challenges
The results of unprecedented monetary easing measures in the past several years have been relatively disappointing so far. Furthermore, this policy also carries risks, such as excessive valuations in financial instruments and a deterioration in the functioning of markets.
Political developments in Europe: Multiple challenges put EU’s future to the test
Rising support for populist parties and the challenges imposed by the migration crisis weigh on EU cohesion, political stability and the implementation of structural reforms. A UK exit from the block could have far-reaching consequences.
European F&A needs to reposition itself in the global arena
The European food and agricultural value chain is relatively diverse and stable. As a result, the European F&A value chain is principally low risk. But, the risk profile is set to worsen due to external developments and internal challenges.
Macro-economic developments Europe: is Europe becoming the new Japan?
European growth is expected to remain subdued in the coming years, due to fading tailwind gains and structural weakness. Negative risk to the outlook have risen; the refugee crisis and a Brexit being the most prominent ones.
The eurozone – completing the monetary house - February 16, 2016
Time for the big reset of monetary and fiscal policy - February 10, 2016
The eurozone crisis - where are we right now? - December 18, 2015
Why growth keeps disappointing - September 10, 2015
Europe’s (public) debt challenge - May 07, 2015
Belgium: recovery at a snail's pace - April 18, 2016
France: Growth returns but remains structurally weak - May 2, 2016
Germany: stable economic growth with challenges ahead - April 11, 2016
Ireland: The Celtic Tiger is back - April 15, 2016
Italy: Banking sector weakness hampers economic recovery - April 29, 2016
Country Report Luxembourg - May 21, 2015
Country Report Poland - May 8, 2015
Portugal: weak reform momentum threatens feeble growth - May 10, 2016
Switzerland: quick economic rebound after massive appreciation 2015 - April 19, 2016
Turkey: ongoing political instability - April 25, 2016
United Kingdom: Brexit poses the main risk to the economy - April 26, 2016