RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic and political developments within continents

The studies on this page focus on the economic outlook of and risks for different regions in the world. The purpose of these studies is to benchmark the countries within the region on economic developments and fundamentals, and to create a comprehensive view on where the region is heading. This is done alongside relevant topics, which can differ across the regions. The topics covered range from macroeconomic developments to political developments.

Asia-Pacific: Trump’s potential impact and opportunities for China and India - March 2, 2017
In this year’s regional study on Asia-Pacific (APAC) we put an emphasis on two major economic topics. First, we assess the potential impact of Trump on Asia. Second, we have conducted an economic and institutional comparison between the two Asian giants: China and India. In our view, Trump’s policies present a downside risk for Asia. However, China and India have the capacity to become the world’s new global growth catalysts, which is welcome in a time when the US is more and more reluctant to fulfil its role as global leader. Especially China seems to have the potential to step up as global economic leader of the pack in the medium term, but the government will have to tackle major unbalances and risks within and outside its economy. 

Latin America: changing course - October 6, 2016
Economic growth has slowed down considerably in Latin America since the end of the commodity cycle in 2011. The economic deterioration seen in recent years has also translated into higher social discontent and political instability. However, the continent seems to be changing course on both the economic and the political front. 

Middle East/North Africa: elevated risk due to low oil prices and security situation -  June 30, 2016
The Middle East and North Africa region is facing many headwinds but of a differing degree of magnitude. The oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been severely affected by the oil price slump while the North African countries and those in the Levant are dealing with a challenging security situation.  

Europe adrift on a sea of liquidity – May 3, 2016
We expect economic growth in Europe will remain subdued in the coming years. Significant structural growth challenges are unlikely to be adequately dealt with any time soon, given increasing populism and low market pressure due to abundant liquidity.

Asia-Pacific: sunny spells with moderate chance of showers – February 18, 2016
Strong economic growth in Asia has led to an impressive reduction in poverty and has been important for world GDP growth. The risks in the region seem to be increasing.

Sub-Saharan Africa: the Long Road up Mount Progress – December 3, 2015
Sub-Saharan Africa is facing headwinds from lower commodity prices, China’s slower growth, and normalization of monetary policy in the US. This has made the region’s economic outlook challenging, though not imminently gloomy.