RaboResearch - Economic Research

Wouter van Eijkelenburg

Economist

Wouter Joined RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets in 2020, where he focusses on ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand.

Wouter analyses the ASEAN, Australian and New Zealand economies from a macro-economicperspective. In addition Wouter covers FX of Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand & Vietnam. Providing short & long term view on these currencies. This includes writing reports on the latest developments in the region as well as on global topics impacting aforementioned countries.

Previously, Wouter worked for Rabobank as Strategic Advisor on public private networks and international trade development. Wouter holds two master degrees: Urban, Port & Transport Economics and Strategy & Entrepreneurship Economics, both at Erasmus University.

Publications Wouter van Eijkelenburg

Economic Report

Australia: Policymakers shifting gears

The recent Australian federal budget represents a shift in budget strategy away from budget prudence towards higher spending. The combination of loose fiscal and monetary stimulus increases inflation expectations. However, the RBA doesn’t expect a rate hike before 2024 due to spare capacity in the economy.

Special

Second wave of Covid-19 impacts economic recovery in India

The number of new infections in India will bottom out in May. Economic pain will come through decreased private consumption after mobility levels dropped. RBI continues its accommodative policy but relatively high debt levels limit the government’s flexibility to support the economy.

Economic Report

Travel bubble brings Australia out of isolation

The establishment of a travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia has more symbolic than economic value. Even though the Australian labour market has shown a strong performance over the last months, the end of the JobKeeper program is hanging above the labour market like the sword of Damocles.

Special

Comparing G20’s cash cannon in 2020

Advanced G20 countries have really fired up the cash cannon compared to emerging G20 economies during Covid-19. But without this sizeable government spending by both the advanced and the emerging G20 countries, G20’s total contraction could have been four times more severe.

Economic Report

India: Second wave and vacci”notion”

India showed 0.4% GDP growth in Q3 of FY21. Unfortunately a second wave of Covid cases is on the rise, which might hamper growth in the next months. Although vaccine implementation started mid-January, the pace of vaccination must accelerate if India is to reap economic benefits in 2021. Fortunately, availability of vaccines is not a constraint.

Special

ASEAN update: Recovering from Covid-19

We expect all ASEAN economies to grow this year, although at different speeds. The current high number of new Covid-19 cases underlines that the virus will continue to challenge economic recovery throughout 2021.

Economic Report

India: The two faces of FY22 budget

We expect a fiscal Q3 GDP figure of -1.8% (y/y) on 26 of February. In general, the outlook for India is improving as the economy picks up and the prospect of additional fiscal support as presented in the FY22 budget. At the same time the policies of the RBI and the government do entail a dose of future risk.

Special

Geopolitieke kansen en bedreigingen voor Nederland (Dutch)

De toenemende rol van geopolitiek in de economie brengt zowel bedreigingen als kansen met zich mee. Nederland heeft een goed uitgangspunt door zijn sterke concurrentiepositie maar ook kwetsbaarheden zoals de afhankelijkheid van bepaalde buitenlandse goederen en diensten.

Economic Update

Emerging markets vulnerability heatmap

The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.