RaboResearch - Economic Research

Raphie Hayat

Senior Economist

Raphie joined RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets in 2014, where he follows China, Japan and a number of other countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Raphie analyses these economies from a macro-economic perspective. This includes (amongst others) writing about relevant developments for the countries in this region and their macro-economic implications. Previously at Rabobank, Raphie covered Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and was as a portfolio manager. His work experience before Rabobank includes KPMG Corporate Finance and UBS.

Raphie holds Master’s degrees in Economics and Finance, a PhD in Economics (VU University Amsterdam) and is a CFA charterholder.

Publications Raphie Hayat

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global economic outlook: Trade war not the only fly in the ointment

Our outlook for the global economy has become less rosy and the downside risks have increased. Global trade, for example, is clearly slowing down and we expect a recession in the US by the end of 2020. We also expect the trade war between the US and China to linger on for a sustained period of time.

Special

Modi's BJP sweeps general elections, but faces arduous task

BJP’s unexpected sweep of India’s general elections means that Prime Minister Modi has a clear mandate to follow through on its reform agenda. However, we believe his government will struggle to push through more difficult reforms, such as labour market and land reforms, which are much needed to lift the country’s growth above 7%.

Economic Report

India’s fiscal path remains slippery after Modi's BJP win

India’s consistent budget deficits are expected to continue over the coming years under a BJP-led government in the second term. Fiscal consolidation is needed to lower elevated debt levels as India’s weak fiscal position is a major macroeconomic challenge.

Video

India: 2019 Economic Outlook - video

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Economic Report

Japanse economie en centrale bank modderen voort (Dutch)

Wij verwachten dat de groei van de Japanse economie en inflatie de komende jaren aan de lage kant zal blijven. Het Abenomics-programma zal daardoor de boventoon blijven voeren, met als voornaamste kenmerk dat het zeer ruimte monetaire beleid van de Bank of Japan nog een tijd lang zal voortduren.

Special

India: trade wars and capital flight

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.