RaboResearch - Economic Research

Raphie Hayat

Senior Economist

Raphie joined RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets in 2014, where he follows China, Japan and a number of other countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Raphie analyses these economies from a macro-economic perspective. This includes (amongst others) writing about relevant developments for the countries in this region and their macro-economic implications. Previously at Rabobank, Raphie covered Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and was as a portfolio manager. His work experience before Rabobank includes KPMG Corporate Finance and UBS.

Raphie holds Master’s degrees in Economics and Finance, a PhD in Economics (VU University Amsterdam) and is a CFA charterholder.

Publications Raphie Hayat

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.

Special

Scenario’s zijn onmisbaar bij voorspellen in crisistijd (Dutch)

Economische voorspellingen in crisistijd zijn nog onzekerder dan normaal. Daarom werken we met scenario-analyses. Voor de huidige crisis hebben wij aannames gemaakt over de lengte en omvang van de lockdown-maatregelen, het monetaire en begrotingsbeleid, de omvang van handelsbelemmeringen en structurele productiviteitseffecten.

Economic Comment

Japan: A deep recession

We expect Japan to fall in a deep recession this year with the economy shrinking by 5%. This is due to looming lockdowns in, amongst others, Tokyo and Osaka and because Japan’s exports will sink as global demand dries up.

Special

Global Economic Contraction: Re-assessing the impact of COVID-19

We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.

Column

Coronavirus: The Economic Impact of COVID-19 on India

We have estimated the impact of COVID-19 on India’s economy, which in our base case is relatively benign due to India’s limited ties with China. However, if there the virus spreads further within India growth will go down sharply.