RaboResearch - Economic Research

Raphie Hayat

Senior Economist

Raphie joined RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets in 2014, where he follows the Southeast Asia region.

Raphie analyses South East Asian economies from a macro-economic and country risk perspective. This includes (amongst others) writing about relevant developments for the countries in this region and their macro-economic and country risk implications. Previously at Rabobank, Raphie covered Africa and the Middle East and was as a portfolio manager. His work experience before Rabobank includes KPMG Corporate Finance and UBS.

Raphie holds Master’s degrees in Economics and Finance, a PhD in Economics (VU University Amsterdam) and is a CFA charterholder.

Publications Raphie Hayat

Special

Modi's BJP sweeps general elections, but faces arduous task

BJP’s unexpected sweep of India’s general elections means that Prime Minister Modi has a clear mandate to follow through on its reform agenda. However, we believe his government will struggle to push through more difficult reforms, such as labour market and land reforms, which are much needed to lift the country’s growth above 7%.

Economic Report

India’s fiscal path remains slippery after Modi's BJP win

India’s consistent budget deficits are expected to continue over the coming years under a BJP-led government in the second term. Fiscal consolidation is needed to lower elevated debt levels as India’s weak fiscal position is a major macroeconomic challenge.

Video

India: 2019 Economic Outlook - video

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Economic Report

Japanse economie en centrale bank modderen voort (Dutch)

Wij verwachten dat de groei van de Japanse economie en inflatie de komende jaren aan de lage kant zal blijven. Het Abenomics-programma zal daardoor de boventoon blijven voeren, met als voornaamste kenmerk dat het zeer ruimte monetaire beleid van de Bank of Japan nog een tijd lang zal voortduren.

Special

India: trade wars and capital flight

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.

Special Dutch version

The permanent damage of Brexit

The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.

Special

Assessing the economic impact of Brexit: Background report

The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.