RaboResearch - Economic Research

Philip Marey

Senior US Strategist

Philip Marey is Senior US Strategist and responsible for Rabobank’s US outlook. He writes and gives client presentations on topics such as Fed policy, the US economy, interest rates, and the impact of US politics on financial markets, and makes frequent media appearances. He has developed various econometric models of interest rates and exchange rates.

Before joining Rabobank, Philip worked as a researcher and as a project manager at Maastricht University on various applied econometric research projects for the European Commission and the Dutch government. He also taught courses in monetary economics and financial markets at Maastricht University.

Philip has an M.Sc. in econometrics from Erasmus University Rotterdam. His academic research has been published in the Journal of International Money and Finance and the Journal of Macroeconomics.

Publications Philip Marey

Economic Report

United States: Insurrection at the US Capitol

On January 6, Trump supporters stormed Congress. The ever increasing polarization of US politics and society has reached a level that poses a serious threat to the stability of the country. If the US does not find an off-ramp from this route, we are only going to see a further escalation of civil unrest.

Economic Report

United States: The Georgia Bifurcation

If the Democrats win both run-off elections in Georgia this would open the door to a large fiscal stimulus package and more expansive fiscal policy in the coming years. This would reduce the pressure on the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus through asset purchases.

Special

United States: Billions toward Covid-19 relief

Democrats and Republicans have finally passed a bill on a new Covid-19 relief package which was signed into law by President Trump on Sunday. The size of the fiscal package is estimated at almost $900 billion, although about half of that is money recycled from the CARES Act.

Economic Report

United States: Biden's challenges

Under a Biden administration foreign and trade policy will remain focused on meeting the challenge of China as the main rival of the US. However, the fiscal policy plans of the Democrats are likely to be stopped by the Republicans in the Senate.

Economic Report

United States: Election meltdown

The US election results are coming in slowly and are likely to be contested. This will reduce the legitimacy of the president that will be sworn in in January and further fuel the social unrest.

Special

Trump versus Biden and the transatlantic trade relationship

Under a Biden presidency cooperation between the EU and US on a broad range of topics would improve and the risk of new tariff hikes fall. Yet, certain tensions would remain difficult to overcome and a significant fall in trade barriers unlikely.

Column

Het Trumpisme blijft, ook als Trump verliest (Dutch)

Economen denken vaak dat Trump in 2016 de verkiezingen won vanwege economische ongelijkheid, het verlies van banen in de industrie en stagnerende inkomens. Maar dat is niet zo: identiteit speelde een veel grotere rol. En dat gaat niet zomaar weg als Trump verliest.

Special

Biden and Trump policies: Compare and contrast

While both Trump and Biden want to boost economic growth and reduce unemployment, their approaches are radically different. In this report, we try to assess the impact of their policy plans on a range of macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, real income, public debt and trade.

Special

US elections: Economy or identity?

While economists have framed the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election in terms of economic inequality, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and stagnating income, the empirical evidence rejects these claims and suggests that identity played a more important role than the economy.